College Football Odyssey

The Odyssey believes the most important outcome of a game last weekend occurred at a stadium formerly known as Qualcomm.

Sure, San Diego State’s upset of Stanford puts them #1 at the quarter pole in the race for the coveted Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six bowl hierarchy.

But, potentially, this might be relatively small potatoes compared to the long-term impact on Aztec football and the City of San Diego.  Given the combination of San Diego’s desirable location and excellent prep football (Can you name the 4 Heisman Trophy winners that have prepped in San Diego County in the last 40 years?), San Diego State has been a sleeping giant since Don Coryell was coaching ’em up on Montezuma Mesa (and outdrawing the Chargers circa 1970).

Given the Chargers’ flight north to a 27,000 seat soccer stadium, the City was still reeling from the loss of its most beloved professional franchise.  More than a temporary balm, SDSU’s last-minute comeback win may well transcend one season.

First, the 42,000+ fans could not have helped but notice the new look at the old stadium.   A big Aztec logo at mid-field announced a new reality and the end zones were now proudly basking in Aztec Red and Black.  Aztec signs adorned the stadium, not like the previous half century when the Chargers were the Ivanka Trump of the stadium and the Aztecs were in the same pecking order as Tiffany Trump is to the President.

Just after the Aztecs started their game-winning drive, with under 4 minutes remaining, the lights went out….and stayed out for 23 minutes.  Given that the Los Angeles Chargers would be playing their first regular season home game in Los Angeles in less than 24 hours,  the blackout was appropriate as a solemn funeral dirge for a lost love.

Then SDSU did something the Chargers of recent vintage rarely did.

They pulled out a close game in the final minute.  Pandemonium reigned as the Aztec fans stormed the field for the first time in virtually forever.   Karma was far from done.    Not atypically, the Chargers’ lost their home opener, 19-17, when their kicker missed a 44-yarder that would have won the game.  The Chargers could not sell out a 27,000 seat stadium.  At least half of the attendees were Dolphin fans.  When Dean Spanos’ image appeared on the scoreboard, the boos were lusty enough to almost be heard in Orange County.

Hopefully, the City of San Diego can work out a solution to the Aztecs’ future stadium home.  But, if not, we suggest retaining the old lady, now happily back to its original name of Jack Murphy Stadium.  Because if there are any more nights as magical as Saturday night in San Diego, the sad memories of a lost love will surely keep receding.

 

 

There are two big games in Southern California tomorrow and the Odyssey will be covering both of them.  The Odyssey is proud to have Jerry Jones covering the intersectional tilt in the Coliseum.  Believe it or not, there are far more than one “Jerry Jones” in the USA.  Our Jerry played cornerback on the 1972 USC team that proved to be one of John McKay’s 4 national championship squads.  In practice, Jerry had the brutal daily routine of covering Lynn Swann.

The early line on this game had USC favored by as many as 17 points.  Prudently, the line has come down a bit.  USC’s offense may have another field day, even if the Trojans fall short of their massive 622-yard output against Stanford.  Even with the Longhorns’ legendary pedigree, we wonder how focused USC will be in the first half.  USC was clearly sky high for the Cardinal, particularly since Stanford has generally had USC’s number since their shocking 2007 upset of the Trojans as a 41-point underdog.

Texas looked awful in their 51-41 home upset at the hands of Maryland.  Their 10-point loss was deceptively close as the Longhorns scored 3 special teams touchdowns to get as close as 10.  Last week, the Longhorns mopped the field against a weak San Jose State team, so please excuse the Odyssey if we are confused as to which version of the Longhorns will show up.

After the game, please see our comment section as Jerry will help us decipher the outcome of this intriguing matchup.

 

The Odyssey is eagerly looking forward to one of the most anticipated games in decades at aging Qualcomm Saturday night.  One has to go all the way back to the 1992 opener against USC (a spinetingling 31-31 tie featuring the incomparable Marshall Faulk) for as much pre-game excitement in San Diego for a college game.  To help generate local interest, SDSU has executed a brilliant billboard campaign, “One City, One Team”, to help convert jilted Charger fans into Aztec supporters.

Stanford comes to town, bitterly disappointed in not showing better at the Coliseum last Saturday night, getting gashed by USC, 42-24.  And we do mean gashed as the Trojans went up and down the field to the tune of 622 yards. That Mission Viejo’s finest, stellar QB Sam Darnold, inflicted damage on a talented Stanford secondary was not stunning.  However, USC’s 307 rushing yards against the proud Cardinal defense was man-bites-dog news.

If the Stanford defense was ripped apart by Ronald Jones & Company, what does the Cardinal make of Rashaad Penny?  All Penny did in the desert last Saturday was to run wild with 353 all purpose yards against another Pac12 team in Arizona State. Penny is a dual threat as he returned a kick 99 yards to the house. Penny and WMU’s Darius Phillips are two of the premier kick returners of this generation.  Stanford’s answer to Penny is RB Bryce Love, who has romped for 340 yards in the Cardinal’s first two outings.  Two proud defenses are going to be challenged.

Thankfully, for Stanford, the Cardinal can cheat a Safety to help stop Penny as the Aztecs pass less than virtually every other team not running the triple option.  Before the season, the Odyssey thought the Cardinal would breeze in this game as the Aztecs lost 4 offensive line starters from a terrific 2016 OLine.  The Odyssey still believes the Cardinal will prevail, but if the Aztecs can pull the upset, such an outcome might propel San Diego State to unprecedented heights as long as its underrated 67-year-old coach, Rocky Long, is patrolling the sideline on Montezuma Mesa.

Often a team will have a hangover after a deflating loss such as the one Stanford suffered in the Coliseum.  However, the Odyssey sees little chance of a letdown.  If the Cardinal can run the table, Stanford has everything to play for, including a potential rematch with USC in the Pac12 championship game.

A bizarre element is that the Aztecs’ leading receiver from 2016, Mikah Holder, may be covered by his twin brother, Alijah, Stanford’s starting cornerback.  Given that the twins spent most of their Oceanside upbringing sleeping in the same bed, their feelings will be a bit surreal.

Multiple Odyssey writers will be in attendance, featuring the observations of Tall TJ.  Check out the comment section post-game.

 

Late Saturday evening was shaping up to be huge for the Mountain West.  Not only was San Diego State bullying Arizona State in the desert, Boise State was breezing 31-10 in the 4th quarter at Washington State.  For the second straight game against a reasonable team, the Cougars looked nothing like the typical Mike Leach passing circus (WSU’s offense no showed in the Holiday Bowl against Minnesota).  Having not scored an offensive touchdown, Luke Falk looked quite mortal, perhaps missing the outstanding receiving duo of Gabe Marks and River Cracraft more than anybody could imagine.

At any rate, no viewer could imagine the inept Cougar offense capable of mounting a comeback.  And, they really did not.  Tyler Hilinski replaced the injured and ineffective Falk and reduced the deficit to 31-17.  Then, midnight madness broke out.  The Cougars somehow managed to intercept a shovel pass.  Then, a subsequent Boise punt was blocked by a Boise blocker!!!   31-31.  Overtime.

The Cougars would prevail in triple overtime, triggering euphoria in the Palouse.  Even with the thrilling comeback, one of the flaws in the Air Raid was exposed.  Down 34-31 in the first overtime, WSU had 2nd and 1 at the 1 yard line.  The QB lines up in the shotgun and they fail at two “Cutesy” plays.  OK, on one play the receiver did drop the ball in the end zone.  Leach elected to kick on 4th and 1 to extend this wholly improbable game to the 2nd overtime.  If WSU has no confidence to try to run it in from the one in 3 opportunities, the Odyssey wonders if the Cougars should deliberately take a delay of game penalty to give their receivers more room to maneuver.  Just a thought.

Another thought.  Bryan Harsin is no Chris Petersen.  Boise has lost several games in the last couple years that Petersen would not have lost as Boise’s legendary coach.

The Odyssey is so intrigued by an interesting intrastate matchup that our Senior writer, Bronco Chris, feels compelled to cover the game in East Lansing.  Check out his postgame comments on this post.

Michigan State is one of the most enigmatic teams in 2017.  This battle against a fired up WMU squad will speak loudly.  Will MSU more closely resemble its 2015 playoff squad or the 3-9 disaster last year?  What is unusual for the Spartans is the uncertainty on both lines, generally a Mark Dantonio staple.

Western has one of the electric kick returners in the country in Darius Phillips.  In their 2015 encounter in Kalamazoo, Phillips torched the Spartans with kick returns of 75 and 100 yards.  Will Sparty avoid putting the ball in his hands at all costs? Last Saturday, Phillips showed that his designation as 2016 MAC Special Teams Player of the Year was no fluke as he took a kick to the house against USC.

Expect MSU to stack the box against first-year starter Jon Wassink.  Western absolutely shocked USC last week with 263 rushing yards and scared the bejesus out of the Trojans before fading late in 110 degree temperature.

Will LJ Scott continue to have the fumbleitis that plauged him last week against Bowling Green?  Stay tuned.

So, the Odyssey remains in the Midwest for another week.  Next week, the Odyssey will be reporting from San Diego State as Stanford plays a second consecutive team from SoCal.

Shortly after Jim Harbaugh’s hiring at UM in December 2014, one of Harbaugh’s biggest recruiting targets instantly became Detroit’s  Mike Weber.  Made extra sense because Weber’s prep coach at Cass Tech, Thomas Wilcher, like Harbaugh, was also a Wolverine player in the 1980’s.  Like Weber, Wilcher was a highly coveted prep running back.  Weber was considered the #1 prep prospect in Michigan who Wilcher called the best running back to come out of Detroit in 30 years.

Further, Cass Tech had provided many Wolverine players in previous decades.  However, the listing recruiting efforts of both Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke, coupled with Urban Meyer’s star power, allowed Ohio State in the door at Motown’s powerhouse.

A fierce recruiting battle ensued.  Weber, reportedly torn, eventually picked the Buckeyes.  The day after Weber’s commitment to the Scarlet and Gray, the Buckeye running back coach who recruited Weber, Stan Drayton, bolted for the Chicago Bears.  Weber tweeted his significant disappointment.  Wilcher initially called the entire saga a “deception.”   For Harbaugh, the disappointment had to be bitter as he needed to make inroads against the OSU recruiting machine.

Well, the Cass Tech pipeline has appeared to dry up for Ohio State.  The gem of Michigan’s current freshman crop is wide receiver, Donovan Peoples-Jones, the latest in a long line of Cass Tech standouts.  Another Cass Tech recruit has joined Peoples-Jones in Ann Arbor.

Mike Weber was supposed to be the featured back in Columbus this year.  A lingering hamstring injury allowed for the emergence of freshman uberback, J.K. Dobbins, who tallied 181 yards against Indiana last week.  The Odyssey wonders if Weber will get a fair shake in OSU’s running back rotation going forward.

If J.K. Dobbins gets the lion’s share of the carries, Weber cannot help but have some lingering regrets over his 2015 decision.  Weber is fully healthy for the epic Oklahoma game tomorrow but Dobbins has been announced as the starter.  Weber has to wonder how he can be only the 3rd Buckeye freshmen to rush for over 1,000 yards (Robert Smith and Maurice Clarett were the others) and be relegated to second string.  Even last year’s 1,096 rushing yards were “quiet” in the sense that Weber’s accomplishments were partially eclipsed by following in the shadows of the great Eziekiel Elliott.

In Monday’s article, we were delighted to share the great stories of overlooked preps, such as Josh Allen and David Johnson, who became superstars.  Regrettably, the flip side is also true.  Being a coveted prep will not always translate into peaches and cream at college.

The Odyssey was in the press box for the Northern Illinois and Iowa openers.  We tend to travel to games where there will be no chance of a Kirk Herbstreit citing, let alone Chris Fowler.  When yours truly is still on a mission to get to the relatively few remaining stadiums of the 130 1-A programs not yet attended, this sometimes necessitates going off the beaten path.

We were intrigued by two very talented visitors coming to DeKalb and Iowa City: QB  Josh Allen and DE Harold Landry.  In Todd McShay’s mock draft, the Wyoming QB was projected as the #2 overall draft pick while Boston College’s Landry was tabbed to go at #9 overall.  We would subsequently be stunned that their productivity  in the openers would have suggested undrafted, free agent status.  Where did they go?  An alien abduction?  In both cases, there may have been mitigating circumstances.

The Friday night opener in DeKalb was yet another of a zillion examples where TV brutalizes attendance.  With a ridiculously late 8:30 start on a high school Friday night, the 16,000+ attendance for a rare visit from a Power 5 school was sadly modest but not unexpected.  Equally bad, the late start would prove to have dire and unforseen consequences for the Odyssey.

Aside from the UCLA-Texas A&M game, I thought the NIU-BC game would have more pivotal consequences than any other in the opening weekend.  The winner could have a needed springboard for a surprising season and the loser, particularly if BC, would have to deal with a lot of negative momentum piled on top of a disappointing 2016 campaign.

In the “Odyssey vs. Phil Steele challenge” (see our August 18 article), the Northern Illinois outcome would be critical.  Steele put Northern Illinois on his coveted Most Improved Team list.  Yes, Steele uses the self-aggrandizing word, NOT the Odyssey’s invention.   NIU slumped to 5-7 in 2016. Since the Odyssey did not envision significant 2017 improvement, we took Steele on and dissented.  NIU’s glory years were largely predicated on the exploits of two other worldly QB’s, Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch.  Thus, the Odyssey never viewed the Huskies as a “reload” program.  The previous two years were marked by mediocre QB play. The Odyssey did not foresee  QB Ryan Graham as being able to play well enough to get NIU to 8-4 or better.

Graham played OK but was betrayed by a couple key drops.  Where was PJ Fleck when so badly needed?   The 4th quarter turned out to be extremely entertaining.

Locked in a 20-20 draw midway in the last quarter, Boston College’s Steve Addazio made a gutsy decision on 4th and 1 from its own 43.  The Eagles successfully converted.  After yet another 4th down conversion, Colton Lichtenberg’s third field goal of the game gave BC  a 23-20 lead with 2:13 to go.  Undaunted,  Graham converted a desperation 4th and long to keep NIU in the ballgame.  When the NIU kicker doinked his 39-yard attempt off the lower goal post, BC survived in a thriller.

Addazio made another gutsy decision before the game.  His hot seat notwithstanding, he elected to start a freshman QB, Anthony Brown.  When grading on a “first start curve”, Brown fared reasonably well.  Good coaching, Mr. Addazio! North Carolina State would love to have a coach who could win such close games. (Yes, Dave Doeren lost another spine tingler he should have won on Saturday versus South Carolina)

But where was Harold Landry?  Aside from one cool, rodeo-style tackle, Landry was largely invisible.  In defense of Landry, there are two caveats.  The strength of NIU’s team was touted to be their offensive line.  Also, one can always game plan to run plays to the other side of the field.  Still, I was surprised and disappointed that Landry did not have more impact.

After the game ended at 11:45, I made a practical decision not to go to the interview room.  The game in Iowa City was already looming with an 11AM start. My hotel room in Bettendorf was, distressingly, almost two hours away.  Since I was not granted a media pass until late in the process, I was not sent a parking pass in the mail.  Accordingly, I parked about 3/4’s of a mile away in a residential block.  Far enough away to keep from being towed I fatefully and erroneously thought, despite the “tow risk” sign in the neighborhood.   OOPS!!  To my utter dismay, I would soon discover that there was no taxi service in DeKalb after midnight.  After cussing myself out for my stupidity, my laptop and I unhappily started a 4-mile trek to the tow yard.   At age 65, I viewed myself as a perfect target for a mugging.  Thank God, DeKalb sleeps after midnight.   For $200, you would think that the least the towing company could do is pick you up.

Despite my post-4 AM arrival in Bettendorf, the lengthy walk and the prospect of the passionate Iowa fans were weirdly invigorating.  I could not get to sleep until close to 6AM.  Fueled on two hours’ sleep, I still made it to the press box in plenty of time for the early kick.  The contrast between the two press boxes provided a loud reminder of the difference between the Big 10 and the MAC.  There was absolutely nothing wrong with the NIU press box — quite “old school” — reminiscent of the typical press boxes in the 1970’s.  In contrast, the Iowa press box was a spacious palace, complete with your choice of several hot entrees as well as all the popcorn and cookies any human being could desire.

Part of my eagerness of my travel to Iowa City, aside from the non-stop graciousness of the locals, was to check out the out-of-nowhere wonderkind, Josh Allen.  Allen had ZERO D-1 scholarship offers coming out of the San Joaquin Valley and had to settle for  Reedley Junior College.  His JC play must not have been considered overwhelming as he only garnered two 1-A offers from Wyoming and Eastern Michigan.  Then 2016 happened!  Allen exploded on the scene as he led the Cowboys to the Mountain West Championship game  highlighted by thrilling wins over Boise State and San Diego State at 7,220 feet.

As I pondered with amazement how Josh Allen could morph from a recruiting reject into a possible stud NFL QB, I quickly tempered  my amazement.  Such misses happen all the time.  On the cover of this week’s Sports Illustrated was David Johnson with the caption, “The Mutant Greatness of the NFL’s best back.”  Johnson grew up in nearby Clinton and amply showed off his athletic gifts as a prep.  Regardless, Iowa discouraged Johnson from even walking on.  Nor did Johnson get a sniff from Iowa State.  Johnson settled for playing at Northern Iowa. In return, Northern Iowa became the beneficiary of 63 touchdowns of production from its surprise superstar.  Johnson’s gaudy stats were not the byproduct of padding against 1-AA competition.  In Johnson’s senior year, Northern Iowa opened at big brother Iowa.  While Iowa had good success defending Johnson’s rushes, the Hawkeyes had no answer for Johnson’s receiving prowess as the versatile star racked up 203 receiving yards — a totally unheard statistic for a running back.  The Hawkeyes must have felt relieved to survive, 31-23.  Against Iowa State, Johnson merely tallied 4 touchdowns.  Despite his extraordinary college career, Johnson was yet again overlooked in the 2015 NFL draft.  Johnson was relegated to the third round as the seventh running back selected.  Given the pass receiving skills that Johnson showed against Iowa, a quality that NFL scouts salivate over in a running back,  the Odyssey still wonders why so many teams passed on one the best players ever produced in the state of Iowa.

I expected the touted Allen to have some success against Iowa’s D and Iowa’s running game to gash the Cowboys.   Hmmm, wrong and wronger!  I failed to fully grasp how the departure of Wyoming’s top 3 receivers would decimate Allen’s options.  An utter indictment of the Cowboys’ 2017 receivers is that the rocket-armed Allen did not even attempt one deep ball in the first half.  The second and later  indictment came when Allen deftly threw a ball into the end zone that most eighth graders would have caught.  Dropped.  Ballgame.

I was shocked that Iowa could hold Wyoming to 3 points. (Though not nearly as shocked that Colorado could hold Colorado State to the same 3 points the previous night.  NOT a good look for the Mountain West! And what did that say about Oregon State?).  Is Iowa’s defense really this good?  We will find out Saturday in Ames.  Iowa’s defensive backs will be challenged by a stunning contrast.  While Wyoming likely will have the least talented receiving corp faced by the Hawkeyes in 2017, Iowa State’s might be the best Iowa faces.  The Odyssey will not be surprised if Iowa State pulls an upset in Ames, especially since Iowa’s offensive line does not appear quite as skilled as we have come to expect from Kirk Ferentz’ troops.

As for Josh Allen, many people saw this game as costing him draft position and money.  He did throw two second-half picks, perpetuating the knock on him.  Too many interceptions and too many balls into stiff coverage.  I believe he deserves the benefit of the doubt as Wyoming’s other skill players do not appear all that skilled.  If Iowa’s defense keeps up their outstanding play in 2017, the competition will also factor in.

Allen was not helped by Craig Bohl’s coaching, surprising to the Odyssey given Bohl’s esteemed pedigree.   In the 3rd quarter, the Wyoming coach made two decisions the Odyssey viewed as  both cowardly and Neville Chamberlainesque.  Down 14-3, Wyoming takes the kickoff and moves the ball to the Iowa 38.  4th and 1 with one of the best quarterbacks in America, Bohl elects to punt.  This decision can only be justified if one clearly thinks the Cowboys are clearly the better team,  electing to play field position with an elite defense.  Wow!

Late in the third quarter, Wyoming’s deficit had grown to 21-3.  The Cowboys have a 4th and 4 at the Iowa 30.  Bohl sends in the field goal unit!!!   Did he not want to try to win the game?  Deservedly, the 47 yard attempt was wide left.  Double Wow!  Bohl should be forced to look at the tape of the  UCLA comeback from a late 44-10 deficit to pull out a miracle.  In this context, how can an 18-point deficit warrant raising the white flag?

The Iowa victory was eerily reminiscent of  its 2003, 21-3 victory over Miami (Ohio).  The Redhawks had a highly touted Senior quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, who threw 4 picks in Iowa City.  His NFL career turned out to be just fine.

Our “farm country” doubleheader again emphasized how traveling to college football games just cannot be duplicated by travel to an NFL game.  DeKalb is a charming town with a surprisingly beautiful campus in NIU.  After the game in Iowa City, one can walk across the Iowa River to College Street and pick among 8 bars in a one block area to watch the next tranche of games with a bunch of college kids.  Does life get much better?  Yes, it can, if you stop off for an evening in Davenport, get on a gaudily lit ferris wheel and can contemplate the majestic Mississippi.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One traditionally anticipates a degree of sputtering offenses in openers.  The biggest reason relates to the offensive line.  Lines operate as a unit.  Usually, you cannot plunk a group of talented individuals on the line and expect instant success.  So, to the extent the O Line has new faces, instant success is the exception not the norm. Teamwork takes time, a cliche but true.

As evidence of this, usually there is a bump up in scoring from week 1 to week 2.

HOWEVER, “The times are a-changin'” as Bob Dylan once croaked.  There are SEVEN games in week 1 where Las Vegas’ predicted total points is at least 64:

Navy-FAU

Louisville-Purdue

New Mexico State – Arizona State

Louisiana Monroe – Memphis

Akron – Penn State

Colorado State – Colorado

Oklahoma State – Tulsa

The ODYSSEY predicts that the total points in the New Mexico State – Arizona State will be the highest of the week.  With 2 poorish defenses, it is hard to see them not wilting in the 2nd half of the Phoenix heat.  Yes, the heat remains in the desert after sundown!

So, if you like lots of scoring, you no longer have to wait for week 2.

If you believe in the concept that massive losses on the offensive line will result in lower-than-anticipated scoring, check out Arkansas State and Michigan this weekend as both teams lost heavily on their OLine.  This may be one reason the total predicted points of 45 in the Michigan-Florida is the lowest of the week.  For Michigan fans, the only factor that might be mitigating is that last year’s offensive line was far from the strength of the team.

The week 1 OLine factor may be the main reason if Alabama triumphs over Florida State as most experts feel that Alabama’s DLine is far superior to the FSU’s OLine.  However, keep posted, if more Alabama defensive linemen get shot between now and game time!

 

 

 

 

The Sun Belt conference gave notice to New Mexico State and Idaho early last year that the two schools were no longer welcome as football-playing members after 2017.  Not since Temple was shown the door by the Big East have members been kicked out of a FBS conference.

At best, the Sun Belt’s reacceptance of New Mexico State and Idaho after the two schools found temporary nirvana in the more proximate Western Athletic Conference from 2005-2012, was an undesired shotgun marriage.  When the two schools rejoined the Sun Belt in 2014, the young conference needed teams, remote geography be damned, and the western duo needed a conference after the WAC’s football death.

However, two factors influenced the Sun Belt to give NMSt and Idaho their walking papers.  The addition of Coastal Carolina gave the Sun Belt a 12th member.  Getting to 12 was very valuable if a conference wished to add a conference title game.  However, the Big 12 led a recent rule change to greatly reduce the import of expanding to the magic “12.”  The Big 12 will be the first conference to have a championship game in 2017 with fewer than 12 teams.   The rule change meant Idaho and New Mexico State became expendable.

I anticipate two very different futures for the Vandals and the Aggies.  Ever since, the WAC’s demise, the Odyssey has strongly felt that Idaho would be much better off in returning to the Big Sky for football.  While the Vandals’ exit from Division 1-A is generally considered a demotion, the Big Sky is an excellent conference, highlighted by strong programs at Montana, Eastern Washington and Cal Poly.  Other members, such as Montana State, Portland State and UC Davis, have scored triumphs over their 1-A “big brothers.”  Casual fans may not realize that the best teams in Division 1-AA are better than the bottom 1/3rd of Division 1-A.    Did I mention geography?  Idaho fans can leave Moscow (just like many USA ambassadors earlier this summer!) for  fun football road trips that were impossible for Sun Belt games.

While Idaho cannot realistically hope to duplicate 2016’s out-of-nowhere 9-4 mark, the Vandals, behind their excellent QB Matt Linehan, rate to do better than the 4.5 games in which the 2017 squad is predicted to win by the experts.  There will be a fair amount of 2018 momentum for Idaho despite their unfortunate football crypt, the Kibbie Dome.

The Odyssey wishes our view for New Mexico State football was nearly as optimistic.  If Dr. Kervorkian was still alive, he would pull the plug for the Aggies at the 1-A level.  The Aggies will go independent in 2018,   They should ask UMass about their ongoing solo debacle.  Even prestigious BYU has major problems in scheduling late season games as an independent.  Check out the Cougars’ final 6 opponents in 2017:  East Carolina, San Jose State, Fresno State, UNLV, UMass and Hawaii.  Impressed?  Heck, let’s just call BYU de facto members of the Mountain West’s Western division.

Clearly, the Aggies are hoping to find a suitable landing spot by playing a waiting game.  NMState hopes for defections from either Conference USA (nearby UTEP is a member) or the Mountain West (where intrastate rival New Mexico belongs).  Even if such defections occur, will these conferences want a perennial losing program  such as the Aggies?  Our guess is that Conference USA will likely not be interested but the Mountain West might be.  However, this waiting game will be costly and, at times, humiliating, as the Aggies’ mandated travels could amount to a a 21st century version of the “Voyage of the Damned.”  Oh, well, at least UMass will be available to play, even if means lots of travel and expense for a game that virtually nobody will want to see.

The Odyssey is a big fan of Phil Steele’s football annual.  The publication is  one of the best things to come out of Cleveland since the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

HOWEVER,

Each year, Phil takes great pride how he consistently outshines other predictors and offers waves of proof over the previous decade plus.  We will be kind and not label him as the Donald Trump of preseason prognosticators.  The Odyssey thinks sometimes Phil takes himself a bit too seriously.  As in way too seriously!  For example, his a list of “Most Improved Teams” is the self-described “coveted” Most Improved Team list.  If a team makes one of his “good” lists, they can be deemed “blessed.”

The humble Odyssey (in our view, it is difficult not to be when dealing with 18-to-22 year olds with the injury wild card adding even more unpredictability) differs with Mr. Steele in some of his 2017 predictions:

1.  Northern Illinois is on his coveted Most Improved Team list at #10.  Since the Huskies, finished 5-7, 5-3 in the MAC, we take this to be a projection of at least a 7-5 or, more likely, an 8-4 mark.  In spite of the MAC West being significantly weaker in 2016,  the Odyssey believes that NIU will have another so-so year — See our August 13 article as for all the gory details.
2. Steele does underrate 3 teams, one being Kansas State.  He rates KSU at #24 in his pre-season poll (#19 in his Power Poll. To which should we look, Mr. Steele??  Multiple polls do give one more wiggle room)  To Steele’s credit, a couple other rankings have K-State even lower.  Lindy’s ranks KSU as #6 in the Big 12.  No way!  Bill Snyder has an experienced team returning, including QB Jesse Ertz, which will rely less than usual on immediate impact from his usual wave of JC transfers.  With possible apologies to Texas and TCU in hand, the Wildcats look to be the only team that consistently plays D in the Big 12.  Snyder’s run-first, ball-hogging offense, another Big 12 anomaly, gives added aid in resting his D.  Five league home tilts further help, including visits from Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia.  We were concerned about the 77-year-old legend’s cancer scare in the offseason, but, undaunted, we expect big results from the Little Apple.
3. Steele ranks Northwestern at #28 nationally.  With a terrific returning backfield, yet another group of  Wildcats will also outshine Steele’s prediction, despite the big loss of a former walk-on, star receiver Austin Carr.  Perhaps easily.  Wisconsin is the clear favorite in the Big 10 West but the Odyssey projects NW to mount a strong challenge.  Barring injuries at the depth-challenged private school, look for Pat Fitzgerald’s trip to Madison on September 30 to decide the Big 10 West.
4. Toledo is ranked at #68 in Steele’s Power Poll.  The Odyssey wonders if this is a misprint.  With a loaded offense, a weakened MAC West and only one daunting game (at the powerful Miami Hurricanes and their awesome D on September 23), the Rockets should win at least 10 games, with 12-1 and a MAC title a strong possibility.  As for critics who question the Rocket D, this is a fair point.  But when Logan Woodside and his bevy of wide receivers easily having the ability to score 50 points in 11 of their 12 regular season tests, winning 52-37 will still count as a win.
5. Steele projects Nevada as the #2 team in the horrible West division of the Mountain West.  We agree with his projection that only 1 team, San Diego State, ranks above #100.  However, Nevada’s coaching transition and new system issues will doom the Wolfpack this year (See details in our August 13 article).  Not only will Nevada not rise as high as #2 in this motley collection, the Odyssey predicts that at least one of Hawaii, Fresno State and UNLV will finish ahead of the Wolfpack.  Where have you gone, Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick?  This year’s edition may prove more downtrodden than downtown Reno.
6. Steele projects Wyoming’s QB, Josh Allen, as the #16 pick in the 2018 draft.  A quick mea culpa:  The Odyssey only follows college football and, thus, are about as far from being NFL draftniks as humanly possible.  However, given the NFL’s yen for taking numerous 1st round flyers on iffy QB prospects, we feel quite certain in saying that Allen will be gone by #16, probably long gone.  We wondered why Steele is so negative on Allen’s draft prospects compared to the shout-outs from many NFL draft gurus.  Steele did mention Allen’s 6 turnovers at Nebraska last year.  Or perhaps Phil is fixated on Allen’s game-ending, Poinsettia Bowl interception against BYU when Allen, trying to overcome a 24-21 deficit, threw into double coverage.  To give Steele the benefit of the doubt, maybe he thinks Allen is a turnover machine, a college version of Blake Bortles.  Regardless, here is the Odyssey’s take.  Phil Steele is utterly in love with his Very Highly Touted player rankings (VHT’s in Steele speak) and his PS rankings.  A skinny Josh Allen was nowhere to be found on those lists coming out of a lightly regarded high school in the San Joaquin Valley.  Zero Division 1 scholarship offers coming out of high school.  We think it destroys some of Phil’s brain cells that a Reedley Junior College QB could morph into a major star.  No VHT!  No PS!  Phil subliminally thinks, “This cannot be happening.”  JUST NOT POSSIBLE!  (Extra credit to all those who know that Reedley JC is located between Fresno and Visalia.  Double extra credit, for any non-Californian who knows where the hell Visalia is).  The Odyssey is not at all deterred that Allen plays at Wyoming.  Au contraire, given that Carson Wentz was the North Dakota State QB at the end of the Craig Bohl’s NDSU tenure.

If, for some reason, we need a Steele/Odyssey tiebreaker, here it is.   Steele projects Michigan State at #69.  MSU is one of the hardest teams to assess, given  its vaunted 2016 recruiting class is now in shreds due to an ungodly combination of player misconduct, legal issues and defections.  However, we cannot totally discount Mark Dantonio’s success with 2-star and 3-star recruits.  We project that MSU will beat both of two teams that Steele has more highly ranked, Indiana and Western Michigan.

SO, Phil, in the unlikely event, the Odyssey is more wrong than right, we will buy you dinner at the restaurant of your choice in San Diego.  But, frankly, we say with all due humility: We are not holding our breath.