College Football Odyssey

We believe College Football Odyssey has a unique claim to fame:  we go to more doubleheaders than any other human.  Saturday,  game #1 was in downtown Atlanta as Georgia State hosted Army.   By Atlanta standards, the heat was not oppressive but that did not induce more fans in the stands.  The ongoing degree of apathy was disappointing for a home team that was highly touted.  Perhaps, some would-be fans were siphoned away to the upcoming Miami-Alabama game at Mercedes-Benz.

Or perhaps they knew that the Panthers were going to play the stinker of stinkers.  As the game progressed, it became clearer and clearer that the wrong team was favored.  A week ago, the Odyssey was touting Georgia State.  We profusely apologize for journalistic idiocy.  Our lawyers are currently preparing defenses for the inevitable claims of football quackery.

The game turned on an amazing sequence of plays.  Trailing 7-0, Georgia State was forced to punt.  Army’s returner fumbled the punt.  Georgia State recovers.  OOPS!  A holding penalty forces the redo of the punt.  Then the strangest deja vu ever witnessed by the Odyssey. On the second punt, the Army returner again fumbles a punt.  Georgia State again recovers!  DOUBLE OOPS!  Yet another Panther holding penalty nullifies a potentially game-turning turnover.

Army methodically built a 21-7 lead and pinned Georgia State deep in their territory on the 7 with 1:22 to go in the first half.  We reflected that Georgia State’s QB, Quad Brown, could charitably be categorized as an erratic passer.  His first two passes of the game were barely in the same zip code as the intended receiver.  Regardless, the Georgia State brain trust made a reckless decision to have him throw on first down.  Interception.  Army scores and you have a 27-7 deficit against a team that chews up clock like no other with its ground and pound offense.  Good luck with that. The Cadets ultimately had 42 minutes of possession time.

We also disliked another decision by the Georgia State coaches.  Down 33-7, with 4:24 to go in the 3rd quarter,  facing a 4th down and 11 from the Army 15, the coaches elected to kick a field goal. By making the kick, the Panthers were now down 33-10.  Whoopee!!  Sure, some math geniuses can point out that the field goal made the game a 3-possession affair.  Sure, if the sputtering Georgia State offense could rally with 3 TDs and 3 2-point conversions, while contending with Army’s clock-chewing offense.  Fantasy land!

Meanwhile, the Odyssey admired how well coached Army was.  In addition to minimizing opening-game miscues, Army usually had a defensive “spy” on Brown.  Brown is clearly more effective with his legs than his arm.   Todd Monken versus the Georgia State staff proved to be the biggest coaching mismatch of the opening weekend.  Did we mention that Georgia State was favored to win the game?  A 43-10 verdict rendered such notion a farce.

Leaving Atlanta with a bad taste in our mouth because of the small crowd and Georgia State’s total dud, we were thrilled to find the antidote.  We traveled to Auburn for Bryan Harsin’s debut.  The student section was beyond awesome even an hour before game time in the late afternoon heat.  Seeing the crowd go wild with the entrance of the War Eagle is always worth the price of admission and then some.  Auburn’s impressive, 60-10 stomping of designated patsy, Akron, gave the passionate fans many opportunities to cheer.  The Odyssey believes that the Auburn student section outshines all others in the 100+ stadiums visited over the past 50+ years.  To boot, the light shows during the game were major fun.    Arguably, Auburn has the quickest trigger finger in firing coaches.  On the Plains, after the game, not even one complaint was heard about Harsin.  Refreshing!!

Another anecdote regarding the passion of Auburn fans:  I wore an orange polo shirt so the friendly locals understandably assumed that I was a fellow Auburnite.  In such cases, the strangers totally excised the words “hi” and “hello” from their vocabulary and substituted the following two words: “war” and “eagle”.

In the press box, we experienced both agony and ecstasy in following Big Sky games.  In our Friday article, we predicted that at least one of Montana and Montana State would give fits to quality FBS teams on Saturday.  Turns out we were too cautious.  Montana stunned a ranked Washington squad, 13-7.  Montana State led for much of their game against Wyoming, before succumbing, 19-16, thanks to a 21-yard Cowboy TD pass in the final minute.  We hope this restores our credibility to readers after our embarrassing gaffe in extolling Georgia State’s virtues a week ago.  Plus, the Odyssey did predict that UCLA would upset LSU.  Even the Odyssey can’t get ’em all right!

The Big Sky conference is much, much more than just having the best conference name.  FBS schools hate losing to their “little brothers” in the FCS.  The Big Sky had 2 nail-biting triumphs over the FBS on debut Thursday.

UC Davis took advantage of a suspension-ridden Tulsa squad (the Hurricanes got into a post-game brawl in their bowl game against Mississippi State) to eke out a 19-17 upset over a Tulsa squad that went in as a 22-point favorite.  Tulsa QB, Davis Brin, made a couple costly errors to aid the Aggies.

Eastern Washington actually went off as a small favorite at woeful UNLV, a rarity for an FCS school.   A shocking halftime score of 6-3 morphed into the thriller of the night where UNLV’s 2-point conversion failed in the second overtime to preserve a 35-33 victory for Eastern.

Conference favorite, Weber State, put up a respectable showing in a 40-17 loss to Utah before a record Rice-Eccles crowd.

The Odyssey predicts that at least one of two conference heavyweights put up a heck of a fight tomorrow against quality FBS teams.  Montana travels to Washington while Montana State travels to 7,220 feet in Wyoming.  Not only are the two Montana schools both targeting big things in 2021 but they clearly have the best-named rivalry game:  “Brawl of the Wild”.

The Big Sky cellar dweller is predicted to be Northern Colorado.  The Greeley guys have a new coach in Ed McCaffrey and a quality QB in his son, Michigan transfer Dylan McCaffrey.  UNC is getting 38.5 points against a Colorado team with QB uncertainties.  You could do worse than take the points.   Just another game where the Big Sky is not getting respect earned over the years.

UCLA’s attendance woes at the Rose Bowl continued with their lightly attended opener with Hawaii.  The Bruins’ opener attracted the fewest fans, with announced attendance of 33,000, since their November 1992 game against Oregon State.   Trust the Odyssey:  far fewer than 66,000 eyeballs were present.  TV brutally dictated that both Fresno State and UCLA play midday, Week 0 games in California heat (the field temp at Fresno was only 117 degrees) instead of another perfect California Night (yes, the Odyssey loves Lesley Gore.  RIP, Lesley!).

UCLA’s average home attendance in their last pre-covid year, 2019, was 43,800 — lowest since the Bruins made their move to the Rose Bowl in 1982.  With the specter of rabid LSU fans taking over the Rose Bowl this Saturday, the UCLA administration is taking  steps to fight back:

1. Each student is being provided a free ticket.  UCLA students have been traditionally apathetic.  One reason is the lack of an on-campus stadium.  The trek from Westwood to Pasadena is not always fun in congested LA traffic.
2. High school students in Southern California will be eligible to get free tix.
3. Alcohol sales are newly permitted.  UCLA Students can actually get drunk at the Rose Bowl instead of West Hollywood!  Plus, the monetary bonanza of selling alcohol to LSU fanatics can hardly be underestimated.  We can imagine Roger Miller singing “Chug A Lug” at halftime.
4.  As a bonus, UCLA looked great in their opener.  The Bruins appear to be a VERY live dog against LSU.  The Odyssey predicts an alcohol-aided upset.

Group of 5 conferences are capable of having 1 or 2 excellent teams but the lack of depth in quality ballclubs is one factor that separates the Group of 5 from the Power 5.

Let’s consider the Sun Belt East:  HELLO, ANOMALY!!  This may be the toughest Group of 5 Division ever with no weak sister.

Defending Sun Belt champion, Coastal Carolina, has everything but the kitchen sink returning from their Top 15 team that beat BYU in one of the games of 2020.  With 19 returning starters, is it possible that Coastal could have another undefeated regular season?  Doubtful, but the non-conference slate is tissue soft (sorry, Kansas!) in part due to the decimation of a solid  Buffalo team that experienced Transfer Mania once Lance Leopold became a late hire at Kansas (sorry, Leopold!).

Perennial power Appalachian State will be looking for revenge after their tight loss to Myrtle Beach’s Coastal .  Appalachian State has a chance to give the Sun Belt some major props with their  September 11 date at Miami.  The Mountaineers play the Hurricanes in a fantastic spot, as the U opens the previous week with Alabama.

Georgia State  has  19 starters returning, including dynamic QB Quad Brown.  The Panthers have been on the upswing in recent years, most evident in their 2019 win at Tennessee and a program first:  back-to-back winning seasons.   The Panthers will have plenty of chances to garner national attention.  The non-conference slate starts with Army and then offers daunting challenges at North Carolina and Auburn.  The Odyssey made a tasty long-shot bet on Georgia State to win the Sun Belt at 35-to-1 odds.  Stay tuned, as the Odyssey will be in the press box in Atlanta for the Panthers’ opener against Army.

Last year’s 4th place squad in the East is another traditional FCS power, Georgia Southern, fresh off 3 consecutive winning seasons.  The run-oriented squad has two chances to flex its in muscles in non-conference play with games against Arkansas and BYU.

Perhaps the best piece of evidence for the East’s power is Troy.  The Trojans are coming off two disappointing seasons, losing to all its East brethren in 2020, but retain a distinguished pedigree.  Ask LSU, Nebraska, Florida State, Mississippi State and Missouri about their struggles against Troy the past 20 years.  Respect given to Troy is shown  by ESPN’s SP+ forecast giving Troy a  61% chance to win their rematch game at South Carolina.

The Sun Belt rocked last year, as evidenced by its perfect 3-0 mark against the Big 12.  Louisiana starts as a VERY live 10-point dog in its opener at Texas (The line since dropped to 8).  Despite most of their “prestige”  non-conference games being on the road, we expect the Sun Belt to fare well again in 2021.  The Odyssey really enjoys the “little guy” winning in the increasingly “have versus have not” world of college football.  Occasionally, the Odyssey does not pretend to have journalistic integrity:  GO SUN BELT!!

I see little reason for optimism in Ann Arbor this fall.  Tradition, the winged helmet and a fabulous fight song can only get you so far.  Perhaps JJ McCarthy will be the wonder frosh QB  the Wolverines badly need.    Will McCarthy be the savior that Harbaugh was touted to be upon his hire?  Maybe McCarthy won’t start and either Cade McNamara or Texas Tech transfer, Alan Bowman, will shine.  Certainly possible.

The biggest reason for pessimism is the head man.  Jim Harbaugh seems to have done a disappearing act that Houdini might have envied.  Where is the cocky guy who guaranteed a 1986 victory in Columbus immediately after a disheartening upset to Minnesota?

Where is the guy who pissed off Pete Carroll after going for 2 in the waning moments of a Stanford rout of the Trojans?

Where is the guy who pissed off the SEC by setting up summer satellite camps in their territory?  And then went shirtless?

Call the cops!  That Jim Harbaugh has gone AWOL!

5 straight losses (3 of which were blowouts) to the Buckeyes have cowed Harbaugh.  Repeatedly losing to the Buckeyes is very irritating but almost excusable given their ongoing surfeit of NFL talent.  Losing at home to a poor MSU team last year is not.

Not only has Harbaugh’s swagger disappeared, his game management is a recurring problem.  In MSU’s miracle 2015 win in Ann Arbor on a game-ending punt block, UM was blocking 8 on 11 as Michigan had two gunners who did not stay home to block.

Michigan was actually favored against OSU in their 2018 finale in Columbus.  The previous week, Indiana successfully ran a lot of crossing routes against Michigan.  OSU looked at the film and intelligently took a page out of the Hoosier playbook.  Michigan had a week to fix this problem.  Harbaugh and DC Don Brown seemed oblivious to the Hoosier success.   The issue remained dreadfully unfixed to the horror of 62 Buckeye points.

The cocky Harbaugh needs to return.  Otherwise, UM’s chance for near term success is diminished.  The cocky Harbaugh would have kept bringing in stellar classes.  With 2 exceptions, UM’s most recent recruiting class is considered ho-hum.

Michigan is not a terribly talented team in 2021.  In Phil Steele’s annual, on the Big 10’s first 3 teams of all-league selections, the Wolverines have 1 selection on offense, 3rd teamer Ronnie Bell.  On his first 3 teams of defense, UM only has 3 2nd-teamers. In addition, the schedule is tricky.  Las Vegas puts the over/under on Wolverine wins at 7.5.  I do not think UM will get there.

The first two games are against Western Michigan and Washington.  WMU is not a pushover and some pundits think the Huskies are one of the more underrated teams in the country.    Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana are all talented.  Maryland’s skill level talent with a Tagovailoa at QB is undeniable. Even Rutgers took the Blue to triple overtime last year as Greg Schiano appears to have revived a doormat.

The crossover schedule with the Big Ten West is not trivial.  Wisconsin mauled Michigan last year, 49-11, and this year’s game is in Madison. Uh oh!  At Nebraska and hosting Northwestern are far from automatic wins.

The Odyssey predicts Michigan will not have a winning season, given that we see only 1 “automatic win” on the schedule (Northern Illinois).

Which means that the administration will likely look for a graceful exit for Mr. Harbaugh.  Which is only fair.  As one of the best QBs to ever don the winged helmet,  such dignity is fully merited.  The Odyssey will profusely apologize for our pessimism if there is an 8-4 mark (or better) in Ann Arbor.

If Harbaugh’s luck is in, perhaps stellar QB play will be the Wolverines’  salvation.  But to assume that the Maize and Blue find a QB savior is to hope for a lot.  In Ann Arbor, coveting saviors has proven to be a risky proposition.

From a perspective of a lifetime college football junkie, I am flying my flag at half mast.  With little hope of raising it back to full height in the foreseeable future.

I have been aghast at the wave of transfers that has permeated college football the past year.  “If I ain’t startin’, I’m certainly departin’ ” seems to be the mantra of the day.   Oh, my feelings have been slightly mixed as players should certainly deserve a degree of autonomy, particularly when there is a coaching change.  But I do not appreciate the players from Group of 5 programs, spurning the programs that took a chance on them out of high school, for greener pastures.  The blue blood programs have so many advantages, the ability to cherry pick players from lower-tier programs perpetuates the growing inequities among the Group of 5 and the Power 5 (or is it Power 4 after the probable Big 12 exits of Bevo and Boomer?).

I love the story of David besting Goliath.  But  Goliath is getting too big in the 2021 football landscape.  I pine for the days of my youth.  Can you imagine Southern Miss beating its SEC neighbor in the eastern part of the state in consecutive years?  The Golden Eagles did so in 1967-68.  Central Michigan traveled an hour south to East Lansing in 1991-92 and emerged triumphant in both years.  Stanford pulled off a big upset of undefeated Michigan in the 1972 Rose Bowl.  That same Indian team was stunned, 13-12, by San Jose State.  I have a hard time envisioning similar, stirring upsets in the rich-get-richer scenario in which we find ourselves.

Certain players will benefit from the new Name, Image and Likeness rules (“NIL”).  Some handsomely.  From the standpoint of parity among teams,  such revolutionary rule change is the equivalent of Jeff Bezos getting a grant from the US government.  An untested Alabama QB, Bryce Young,  is reportedly getting endorsement deals  totaling near $1 million dollars.  Teams used to go on probation when the NCAA found out that a star was getting a fraction of this money under the table.  Will NIL money create resentments among teammates?  Stay tuned.

Group of 5 teams simply do not have the same level of deep-pocketed boosters to take comparable advantage of the new NIL rules.

The latest domino to drop is the specter of a super conference.  UGH!  With Texas and Oklahoma courting the SEC, the fragile equilibrium of the other conferences is threatened.  If the Sooners and the Longhorns leave the Big 12, that beleaguered conference has two distasteful options:

1. Disband altogether, as the Big East did in football after the previous bout of conference musical chairs in 2010.
2. Become watered down:  Hello Houston, SMU and certain other usual suspects.  Have fun negotiating your next TV contract!!

My son and I admire the manner in which England’s Premier League works.  Each year 3 teams are relegated to a lower-tier league as  three teams are promoted.  If the SEC does become the “Super 16” perhaps this might give the lower-tier a reasonable carrot.  Since college football is changing so dramatically, why not?

However, recent trends suggest that most Division 1 programs will increasingly be picking up the crumbs from a small number of super powers.  I really hate to quote Donald Trump BUT:  “Sad”.

After LSU’s dreadful start, the Odyssey posted the following query on October 14th: Was Ed Orgeron a 2nd Edition Gene Chizik?

Given the mass exodus of Tigers from their rocking national championship team, we were initially inclined to give Coach O a pass on 2020.  However, nobody envisioned their shockingly inept defense.  The return of Bo Pelini to the D coordinator position seemed as out of date as hiring a blacksmith in 1920.

Black is an excellent adjective to characterize LSU’s start of the season.  LSU single handedly and improbably made K.J Costello look like Dan Marino in their ill-fated opener.  Another defensive fiasco at Missouri ensued.   However, the Bayou Bengals became the beneficiary of several favorable breaks.  Their game at The Swamp was postponed at a point when LSU was still in disarray.  The rescheduling of the game to the week before Florida’s appearance in the SEC title game proved a God send.

The preoccupied Gators rested their nuclear tight end, Kyle Pitts.  Florida was clearly looking forward to Saban’s Tide.  Florida’s other Kyle, Trask, tossed some uncharacteristic picks.  Still, when LSU was stopped on a key 3rd down with 2 minutes to go in a tie game,  Florida seemingly had the upper hand to survive the scare.  Until, Marco Wilson decided to throw a shoe 20 yards down the field.  Personal foul!  The drive continues.  A miraculous 57-yard field goal in the mist gave LSU 37-34 salvation.

The following Saturday, LSU hosted another makeup game versus Ole Miss.   In most years, LSU out-talents the Rebels.  2020 was not most years.  However, Matt Corral, Ole Miss’ prolific but inconsistent QB, threw 5 picks to enable the Bayou Bengals to survive another thriller.

Coach O should thank his lucky stars that LSU wound up 5-5.   The aftermath resulted in some predictable staff changes.  Bo Pelini’s firing was a bit easier for the former Nebraska head coach to take as he will get several million dollars in severance.

2021 will be incredibly interesting on the Bayou.  Did 2019 catch lightning in a bottle?  The uber-strong SEC West is not getting any weaker as the mutts of the West (Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas) all made promising coaching hires before 2020.

LSU will be one of college football’s most interesting stories in 2021.

College Football Odyssey will take its usual hiatus until August.  Till then, please stay healthy.  Hopefully, the health issues of the USA will diminish to a point that we can see you in the stands come September.

Prior to 1998, the college football world repeatedly complained that there was no clarity in crowning a national champion.   That the 1997 national championship was just the latest split between two teams, Nebraska and Michigan, provided more fuel to the fire.  The BCS was hatched to solve this issue.

Controversy repeatedly dogged the BCS during its 16-year run.  So much so, that a 4-team playoff was created in 2014 so that that the inequities of only allowing 2 teams to play for a title would be resolved.

In theory, the playoff represented an improvement.  But sometimes the gulf between theory and practice appears as wide as the Grand Canyon.             .

No less a sage than Kirk Herbstreit opined earlier this month:  “Before the 2021 season, you can almost pencil in Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson into the playoffs.  And you can almost do so before the 2023 season”…and so on.

The playoff era seems to have created 3 monopolies that loom larger each year.  Even programs with very high levels of success, such as Oklahoma and Notre Dame, seem comparatively small.

In its rankings, the selection committee turned a blind eye to some of 2020’s game results.  For example,  the Sun Belt’s  3-0 mark against the Big 12 was long forgotten by the time the last rankings were made public.

The bowl season, so awesome in my youth, has devolved into a bloated farce.  The player opt outs that started with Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette have erupted into a deluge.  Wednesday’s Cotton Bowl between Florida and Oklahoma was ruined when 8 Florida starters, including its top 4 receivers, said “no, thanks”.

Today, an unbeaten San Jose State team was shorthanded and quickly found itself in a 27-0 hole.  When North  Carolina plays in the Orange Bowl, a potentially fantastic matchup against Texas A&M will be marred by the absence of the Tar Heels’ star running backs, its best receiver and its star linebacker.

The solution to the current mess will undoubtedly be an expansion to 8 teams.  Such expansion will clearly solve some inequities but will further trash the bowl system.  Maybe that cost is acceptable.

Count me among the old-timers who loved January 1 when the 4 big bowls all played.  When the incomparable Rose Bowl could count on the Pac 8 (or Pac 10) champ playing the Big 10 winner, the tradition was  a reassuring balm to start a new year.   I did not mind the controversies that would sometimes ensue and, in fact, got some pleasure out of the politicking.

Oh, did I mention that Alabama is a 20-point favorite tomorrow against Notre Dame.  Yawn….the old days were not bad.  Not bad at all.

Last night, at LA’s legendary Coliseum, the Pac 12 miraculously found a fitting way to end their truncated pandemic season.

In Oregon, the Pac 12 crowned a champion that has all the legitimacy of an election in a backwater, 3rd world, fascist outpost.

That understated statesman, Donald Trump, has been constantly bleating “Fake News” during the past 4 years.  Mr. Trump has induced the Odyssey to cry out, “Fake Champs”

Washington was supposed to play in last night’s “championship” game against USC by virtue of a gaudy 3-1 season record.  However, COVID made the Huskies a 12th hour, no-go.

“No Problema” cried out the vastly overpaid commissioner, Larry Scott.  He quickly deemed 3-2 Oregon as being worthy of playing in the title.  Should a team with a mediocre record play for a conference championship when said team proved it is not even the champion of Central Oregon?  The rebuttal is the claim that the Ducks’  chances at Pac 12 North supremacy were snuffed when their showdown tilt with Washington was a COVID casualty.

One could make an argument that USC’s inclusion in the championship game was also slightly suspect.  The surprise team of the conference, Colorado, had been chugging along at an undefeated clip until they lost their regular season finale to Utah.  Regrettably, the Buffs’  showdown with the Trojans was yet another COVID scrape.

In fact, this year’s “champion” Ducks team is a far cry from their squad that triumphed in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day.  In addition to the loss of Justin Herbert to the San Diego Chargers, many key returning Ducks foresaw the Pac 12 season for the joke it would become and opted out.

Even Kedon Slovis, USC’s redoubtable quarterback, could not take last night’s game seriously as the Sophomore gunslinger threw 3 game-changing picks.

SO, Congrats, Oregon!  Your conference championship has the same legitimacy as calling the 2nd NFL team in Tinsel Town the “Los Angeles Chargers.”

When we posted “The Second Time Around” last week, little did we realize that we would again need the title this week.

One of the unique aspects of college football is that in the vast majority of circumstances, you only get one shot at a team this year.  To this, the Odyssey says “hooray!!”  Imagine the dilution of the intensity if Auburn-Alabama or Army-Navy played more than once a year.

Due to weird luck and questionable scheduling, the American Athletic Conference championship game is in store for its 3rd almost immediate do-over since 2012.

This Saturday’s Cincinnati game at Tulsa was rescheduled due to COVID.  Which is unfortunate since next week’s AAC championship game is Cincinnati vs Tulsa.

If you believe this is Deja Vu all over again for the AAC championship, you are so correct!  Last year, Memphis played Cincinnati in consecutive weeks.

In 2012, Central Florida had an interdivision game scheduled against Tulsa on November 17th.  Two weeks later, they were at it again.

A modest proposal for every conference with 2 divisions:  Have as many conference games as feasible,  later in the conference schedule, be intradivision games so that the immediate redo becomes a remote possibility.