College Football Odyssey

With the advent of the mega conferences,  not expect that the best 2 teams will always meet in the converence championship game.  AU contraire!  In the larger conferences, you avoid almost as many teams as you play.  Consider Ohio State.  In 2024,  the Buckeyes were not deemed good enough to play in the Big 10 championship game.  Not so coincidentally, Ohio State was the only team among the Big 10’s Top 4 to play each of the other 3 (Oregon, Penn State and Indiana).  The “other 3” only had to play 1 of the league’s Top 4 teams.

In the Big 12, 4 teams wound up with a 7-2 mark.  Complicated tie breakers focusing on the winning percentage of conference opponents helped determine that Arizona State would play Iowa State for the Big 12 title, while Colorado and BYU cooled their heels (Ironically, the 2 “left outs” did play each other in The People’s Championship at the Alamo Bowl).

The Odyssey cannot express how important the vagaries of the conference schedule are when it comes to the 2 teams playing for the crown.  As we did last year, we did a deep dive on the Big 10’s upcoming conference schedule but with one key change from last year’s analysis.  Last year, we ranked Big 10 squads #1-#18 based on their record in the previous 5 years.  Given that historical records no longer have the same measure of “predictability” in the NIL/transfer portal era (we are looking at you, Indiana!), we decided to rank teams #1-#18 strictly on their Big 10 conference record in 2024.  One can poke a couple holes at this approach.  Using this metric, Indiana is #3 and Michigan #7.  Hmmmm.  The lower the score in your conference opponents, the tougher your schedule.

Our conclusion is that the 2025 Big 10 schedule is  incredibly skewed!

Michigan, by far, has the easiest schedule!  The Wolverines play 7 of the 8 lowest ranked teams and do not play Oregon or Penn State.  Their season-ending momentum in 2024 just keeps building!

Contrast Michigan’s schedule to that of Wisconsin.  Using our algorithm, Michigan’s opponents total 115.   Those of Wisconsin total 62.  That quickly warming hot seat for Luke Fickell rates to be fanned by a brutal 2025 conference schedule.  Eight of the Badgers’ 9 games are against teams in the top 11.

Five other teams face tougher than average schedules:

2.Rutgers (72)

3. Iowa (73)

4. Northwestern (76)

5. Michigan State (78)

5. Oregon (78)

Among the easiest schedules:

17.  Illinois (101)

16. Minnesota (95)

14. Nebraska (94)

14. USC (94)

The Odyssey is unclear as to how the Big 10 determines schedules.  Regardless,  these schedules really tilt the odds as to who gets to Indy.

One of the down sides of watching a slew of college football bowl games is that one has to endure the same ads over and over and over…….. This holiday season, said repetitions have had a definite Alabama tilt.  Nick Saban is the B&B host from hell.  Another goofus, wearing an Alabama hat, keeps chanting “High Tide” numerous times before being corrected.

After Alabama’s desultory 19-13 loss to Michigan, Kalen DeBoer was being skewered.  Cannot be fun to be compared to the GOAT!  The Mouth of the South, Paul Finebaum, pointed out that Alabama was upset in 3 games where the Tide were double-digit favorites (23 points at Vandy, 14 points at Oklahoma and 16.5 points versus Michigan) whereas the immortal Saban only suffered one double-digit upset during his 17-year run.

DeBoer was a helluva coach at Washington but his Alabama tenure may again prove the following adage:  Do not follow a legend.

Would you like some more anecdotal evidence as to how inexact recruitment of high school Seniors is:

Here goes:  Consider the two Cams that finished in the Top 5 of Heisman Trophy voting.

Cam (eron) Ward, Miami’s QB, had to settle for San Antonio’s Incarnate Word, an FCS program, before going to Washington State and, finally, the Hurricanes.

Cam Skattebo, despite a prolific career at Sacramento’s Rio Linda High School, had all of 2 offers:  Sacramento State and William & Mary.  Skattebo decided to stay home for 2 years.

The similarities between the two Cams abruptly ended abruptly during the past week.  Skattebo performed heroically in an Arizona State comeback that came one 4th and 13 play from toppling mighty Texas.  Skattebo’s 2024 stats amazed:  1,700+ yards rushing and 600+ yards receiving — not to mention his TD pass against Texas yesterday on a scintillating 4th and 1 call.  Skattebo performed his heroics despite not feeling great.  The running back was vomiting on the sidelines during the game.

Cam Ward played great in Miami’s bowl game — in the FIRST half.  Ward sat out the 2nd half and watched the Hurricanes cough up a second half lead to Iowa State.

One Cam became a lifetime folk hero in Tempe.  As for the other Cam,…………………..

This year’s Big 12 race was one of the most bizarre in college football history.  Many pre-season favorites turned out to be various shades of putrid  How could a vaunted Oklahoma State team go 0-9 in the Bizarre (er, Big) 12?  Utah and Arizona were among other pre-season picks to excel.  Both excelled at being mediocre to awful!

The rest of the conference consisted of 13 pretty good teams with no teams deemed to be truly special.  On the last weekend, 6 teams had chances to play in the conference championship game.  4 teams finished with 7-2 conference marks.  Arizona State and Iowa State won tiebreakers over BYU and Colorado to play in the championship game.  Given the lack of parity in conference schedules, incomprehensible tiebreaks such as the conference winning percentage of opponents comes into play.

The Alamo Bowl proved to be the “alternate” Big 12 championship game when Colorado played Brigham Young.

The lack of being able to equitably decide who are the 2 most deserving teams to play for a  conference title is not just a Big 12 problem.  It is a universal issue with bloated numbers in each of the Power 4 conferences.  Consider that each Big 12 team does not play 6 conference members.  The issue is worse in the SEC since only 8 conference games are played, meaning that 7 conference rivals are not played.  The discrepancy in the difficulty of  certain schedules of 2024 SEC squads was laughable.  3 teams had brutal league slates:  Florida, Georgia and Oklahoma.  In comparision, the SEC schedules of Missouri and Texas were a walk in the park.

So, I was fine if the Alamo Bowl conferred a second Big 12 champion.  Turns out that the “two” Big 12 champs were picked 16th (Arizona State) and 13th (BYU) in the upside-down Big 12.  Gotta love the unpredictabilty and chaos!

Viva, the Big 12!!!

With the transfer portal, NIL and illogical conference realignment partners, a lot of bizarre stuff has been haunting the college football world in recent years.

But nothing seems stranger than what has transpired at Marshall in the past month.  Marshall had a banner year, going 10-3 and smashing Louisiana in the Sun Belt conference championship game, 31-3.  From a gambling standpoint, Marshall stood even taller.  Its only loss against the spread came when Louisiana Monroe scored at late touchdown for a backdoor cover.  All in all, a spectacular year for the Sun Belt champs.

Marshall’s coach, Charles Huff, was working on the last year of his contract.  A contract extension and a pay raise seemed to be the least school officials could offer Huff.  Huff was not a one-year wonder as demonstrated by their momentous upset at Notre Dame.

An impasse resulted.  Then, shocking news.  Huff is announced as the head coach at Southern Miss.  This is not the Southern Miss of the Brett Favre days or the 1960’s.  Not even remotely close!  Southern Miss is a once proud program whose best days are in the rear view mirror.  In the NIL era, the Golden Eagles are at a clear financial disadvantage.

What the hell happened in Hunington?  Is there some sordid scandal that is still secret?

Was a confident black head coach in the Trumpiest state an issue?

The Odyssey is still scratching our head.  WTF!

Perhaps the worst aspect of the transfer portal is that the “incubators” of underated talent gets left with nothing.  Not even a waiver wire fee for the team left behind.

Let’s consider a few cases:

Ahmad Hardy    Hardy  was a 0-star recruit from Monticello, Mississippi.  Hardy had a breakout season, rushing for 1,351 yards for an upstart Louisiana Monroe squad.

Fluff Bothwell  was not even on Phil Steele’s depth chart for the top 4 running backs going into the 2024 season.  Fluffy wound up with  750 rushing yards for South Alabama, scoring 7 TD’s in USA’s last 5 regular season games.  The timing of the transfer portal is so messed up that Bothwell declared before USA’s bowl game last Saturday against Western Michigan. (Transfer portal timing also caused Penn State’s backup QB to hit the portal before their CFP game this weekend against SMU.  YIKES!!)

Compared to Hardy and Bothwell, Washington State’s John Mateer, was a high school phenom as a 3-star recruit.  Mateer emerged as a breakout star for Washington State in 2023 after Cam Ward’s departure.  Mateer wanted a bigger stage than the Pac-2 in 2025.  Au revoir,  Pullman!

Transfer portal sadness has not been confined to the players.  Dave Clawson is an excellent coach who recently  waived the white flag after 11 years at Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons had serious money issues that created key departures from Winston-Salem.

The transfer portal can work well for all parties when a player can get more playing time at another school.  And this is America, where money rules.  Still, the portal too often leaves a very bad feeling with the Odyssey.

No path to the title is easy BUT………

Penn State’s path to the semifinals looks to be the most manageable.  If the Nittany Lions can prevail in their home game against SMU, they have a second round encounter with Boise State.  Neither SMU or Boise has beaten a current Top 20 team.  Boise has beaten UNLV twice but you get our drift.

Based on Boise’s narrow loss to undefeated Oregon, the Broncos should not be taken lightly.  But other paths are more perilous.  Consider that the top-seeded Ducks may start off with a rematch against Ohio State.  OUCH!  The Odyssey considers Michigan’s win over Ohio State to be the flukiest of flukes.  Ryan Day probably won’t wear a dunce cap again.

Maybe the football Gods are taking pity on Penn State.  After close loss after close loss after close loss after close loss in recent years, the Committee chose to smile on the Nittany Lions.

Football fortunes in the state of Oklahoma have never been lower.  There may be no close second.  Consider:

Oklahoma State was a co-favorite to win the Big 12.  Unbelievably, their conference mark was 0-9, ending with a 52-0 shellacking at University of Deion.

Tulsa’s 3-9 record proved the catalyst in the firing of Kevin Wilson.  It is mind blowing to claim that the Tulsa finale might have even been worse than the Cowboys, losing 63-16 at home to underwhelming Florida Atlantic.  FAU came to Tulsa with 9 losses and romped with 665 yards of offense.  Four times the hapless Golden Hurricane D gave up at least 52 points in 2024.  This stinker was not the end of Tulsa’s bad news as 4 offensive line starters hit the transfer portal.

One silver lining in the Sooners’ 2-6 SEC record was a stunning 24-3 upset of Alabama.  Yet, even this pleasant November surprise could not keep 5-star recruit and starting QB, Jackson Arnold, from hitting the transfer portal.

The only good news is that Sylvester Stallone’s Tulsa King looks to be renewed for a third season.

OUCH!!

Texas won a huge game Saturday in the revival of their rivalry with Texas A&M….but Longhorn QB Quinn Ewers had one further accomplishment on Saturday.  He became the ONLY member of the Ohio State signing class of 2021 to experience a victory against Michigan!

Congrats, Quinn!

Voters in the November elections were worried about high levels of inflation.  Latest anecdotal evidence:  $20 million does not buy what it used to, given Ohio State’s latest faceplant against The Team Up North.

While Michigan fans are understandably boisterous, that does not silence grateful laughter from Syracuse.  John Cooper 2.0 ran off their starting QB, Kyle McCord, for a supposed upgrade in Will Howard.  Howard threw 2 costly interceptions against TTUN.  Meanwhile, McCord threw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s in Syracuse’s  42-38 upset of Miami that may knock the Hurricanes out of the playoff.

McCord’s brilliance caused a field storming in the Cuse.  A different type of field storm occurred in Columbus.  The two teams clashed after the game which involved the police macing some Wolverines.  A suggestion to Ryan Day:  Have your players mace the Wolverines DURING the game.  Just a thought.

Did OSU misallocate their $20 million?  Quite likely.  Did OSU get outspent in the Cam Ward sweepstakes?  Imagine the Buckeyes with Ward!  Instead, they spent a lot of bucks on Quinshon Judkins when they already had a stellar running back in Treyveon Henderson.  Hmmmm.  Especially when your all-world receiving corps suggests a heavy dose of passing.

Last night, the Odyssey did feel sorry for Ryan Day (although perhaps we should not after he said he wanted “to hang a hundred” on the dreaded Wolverines).  How well could he sleep?  If at all, horribly.