Kicked to the Curb

The Sun Belt conference gave notice to New Mexico State and Idaho early last year that the two schools were no longer welcome as football-playing members after 2017.  Not since Temple was shown the door by the Big East have members been kicked out of a FBS conference.

At best, the Sun Belt’s reacceptance of New Mexico State and Idaho after the two schools found temporary nirvana in the more proximate Western Athletic Conference from 2005-2012, was an undesired shotgun marriage.  When the two schools rejoined the Sun Belt in 2014, the young conference needed teams, remote geography be damned, and the western duo needed a conference after the WAC’s football death.

However, two factors influenced the Sun Belt to give NMSt and Idaho their walking papers.  The addition of Coastal Carolina gave the Sun Belt a 12th member.  Getting to 12 was very valuable if a conference wished to add a conference title game.  However, the Big 12 led a recent rule change to greatly reduce the import of expanding to the magic “12.”  The Big 12 will be the first conference to have a championship game in 2017 with fewer than 12 teams.   The rule change meant Idaho and New Mexico State became expendable.

I anticipate two very different futures for the Vandals and the Aggies.  Ever since, the WAC’s demise, the Odyssey has strongly felt that Idaho would be much better off in returning to the Big Sky for football.  While the Vandals’ exit from Division 1-A is generally considered a demotion, the Big Sky is an excellent conference, highlighted by strong programs at Montana, Eastern Washington and Cal Poly.  Other members, such as Montana State, Portland State and UC Davis, have scored triumphs over their 1-A “big brothers.”  Casual fans may not realize that the best teams in Division 1-AA are better than the bottom 1/3rd of Division 1-A.    Did I mention geography?  Idaho fans can leave Moscow (just like many USA ambassadors earlier this summer!) for  fun football road trips that were impossible for Sun Belt games.

While Idaho cannot realistically hope to duplicate 2016’s out-of-nowhere 9-4 mark, the Vandals, behind their excellent QB Matt Linehan, rate to do better than the 4.5 games in which the 2017 squad is predicted to win by the experts.  There will be a fair amount of 2018 momentum for Idaho despite their unfortunate football crypt, the Kibbie Dome.

The Odyssey wishes our view for New Mexico State football was nearly as optimistic.  If Dr. Kervorkian was still alive, he would pull the plug for the Aggies at the 1-A level.  The Aggies will go independent in 2018,   They should ask UMass about their ongoing solo debacle.  Even prestigious BYU has major problems in scheduling late season games as an independent.  Check out the Cougars’ final 6 opponents in 2017:  East Carolina, San Jose State, Fresno State, UNLV, UMass and Hawaii.  Impressed?  Heck, let’s just call BYU de facto members of the Mountain West’s Western division.

Clearly, the Aggies are hoping to find a suitable landing spot by playing a waiting game.  NMState hopes for defections from either Conference USA (nearby UTEP is a member) or the Mountain West (where intrastate rival New Mexico belongs).  Even if such defections occur, will these conferences want a perennial losing program  such as the Aggies?  Our guess is that Conference USA will likely not be interested but the Mountain West might be.  However, this waiting game will be costly and, at times, humiliating, as the Aggies’ mandated travels could amount to a a 21st century version of the “Voyage of the Damned.”  Oh, well, at least UMass will be available to play, even if means lots of travel and expense for a game that virtually nobody will want to see.