Two recent developments in major conferences have led to a greater possibility of inequity in conference schedules.
The growth in conference membership means that the concept of playing all your opponents in a given year is impossible. For example, the Big 10 would need a 17-game schedule with no non-conference opponents to accomplish a true head-to-head.
Elimination of divisions does have the attraction of having the teams with the two best records in the title game but does increase the randomness of scheduling. In the division model, each team in its division had a cadre of common opponents. No longer.
When the Big Ten announced its conference schedule for the next 5 years, the Odyssey decided to analyze the strength of each team’s 2024 conference schedule. To do this, we arbitrarily decided to rank each team from #1 to #18 based on its performance over the past 4-5 years (with some discounting for COVID’s 2020). This is a tricky exercise because teams like Northwestern, Indiana and Michigan State have all had moments of glory and years where they did a face plant.
However, fools rush in where wise men fear to tread, so our rankings look like this:
1.Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Oregon
4. Penn State
5. USC
6. Wisconsin
7. Washington
8. Iowa
9. UCLA
10. Michigan State
11. Minnesota
12. Purdue
13. Maryland
14. Illinois
15. Northwestern
16. Indiana
17. Nebraska
18. Rutgers
Using these numerical rankings, we calculated a sum for each team. The lower the total, the tougher the schedule. Since there are 9 conference games, we used a tiebreaker of home conference games if the total for 2 teams was within 1 point of each other. Our tally, with #1 being the toughest conference schedule and #18 being the easiest:
- Oregon
- Penn State
- Northwestern
- Minnesota
- Washington
- Michigan
- Purdue
- USC
- Indiana.
- Michigan State
- Ohio State
- Iowa
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- UCLA
- Illinois
- Wisconsin
- Rutgers
In a perfectly balanced schedule, Ohio State might have the easiest schedule since the Buckeyes do not have to play themselves. Similar thinking would lead one to assume that Rutgers might have the most difficult schedule. Instead, Rutgers has the easiest schedule. The Scarlet Knights do not play teams #1-#4 and have 5 home games. Did the schedule makers tilt the schedule to have more marquee games for TV appeal? Based on our analysis, the Odyssey thinks so.
The difficulty of Washington’s schedule may be slightly understated. Not only do the Huskies have 5 road games but UW has two of the longest road trips as they play at Penn State and Rutgers.
Wisconsin, UCLA and Maryland avoid both Ohio State and Michigan. Michigan State is the only school which must face each of the top 3 teams.
Michigan’s total 2024 schedule is much more difficult than their 2022-23 schedules which included the following murderer’s row in non-conference play: Connecticut, Colorado State, Hawaii, East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green. No such cupcakes in 2024 as UM’s non-conference schedule includes Texas and Fresno State.
The Odyssey believes that Iowa will have a scheduling advantage in most years due to their three (!) protected conference tilts with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska. No offense to those 3 programs but the Hawkeyes will annually have 3 less slots to draw perennial conference powers.
Among non-protected opponents, future schedules will be set up so that rotating opponents will be faced a maximum of 3 times within any 5-year period.
One final thought on divisions which bothers us. College football’s most intense rivalries have the allure of only 1 meeting per year. With the elimination of divisions, the possibility of Michigan-Ohio State or USC-UCLA playing on consecutive weekends gives the Odyssey indigestion.