Can you overdo a good trend? Sure! Sunshine is fantastic but prudence is in order so one is not plagued with a bad case of sunburn.
20 years ago, going for it on 4th down was not nearly as popular as in 2024. We agree with the analytics for multiple reasons. If you can keep the ball longer, one’s defense is fresher in the fourth quarter. Sadly, we will never forget how Cal’s defense was totally gassed in their 4th quarter collapse against Miami. Further, we no longer live in an era of 17-14 games where offenses often moved at a snail’s pace. If you can play keep away longer from a prolific offense, who can argue with such impeccable wisdom? (Consider Vandy’s 42 minutes of ball control against a dangerous Alabame offense).
HOWEVER!!!!
The trend has gone too far! Way too far!
Some recent gaffes:
Texas State is leading 39-28 agaiinst long-term rival Sam Houston State. GJ Kinne goes for it on 4th and 1 from his own 25. Stuffed. OOPS. Texas State loses a 40-39 heartbreaker.
Tulsa recently played Army. The Golden Hurricanes’ coach, Kevin Wilson, was concerned about his offense having limited possessions against the Cadets. On the game’s opening drive, WIlson is so damned paranoid about giving up possession, he goes for it on 4th and 5 from his own 39. Failure. Gifted with great field possession, Army immediately scores and the rout is on.
In last Friday’s game in Tempe, ASU is nursing a 20-16 lead midway in the 4th quarter facing a 4th and 1 from inside its own 35. Some context: Utah’s QB Cam Rising is making his first start of 2024 and is clearly less than 100% physically. Rising has played poorly. Arizona State foolishly goes for it. And fails. That they survived is a detail but does not change the foolishness of the decision.
There are other egregious examples but my dementia is starting to kick in. If UAB’s Trent (“The Goofer”) Dilfer has screwed up in this regard, the Odyssey would not be surprised.