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If the article title leads you to think we would be writing about Bryce Underwood, GOTCHA!  The Odyssey is doing a “bait and switch.”

The Odyssey is eating LOTS of crow when the topic is the California Golden Bears.  Last month, we targeted Cal as the biggest loser in the transfer portal carousel.  True enough, but Cal is 3-0 behind the latest QB phenomenon from the Aloha State,  Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.  JKS had committed to Oregon BUT Dante Moore seemed to have a lock on the job with years of eligibility remaining AND Fernando Mendoza left Berkeley for Indiana.  As a result, JKS migrates to Bear Territory.  Is Strawberry Canyon witnessing the next coming of Joe Roth, Steve Bartkowski and Aaron Rodgers?  Maybe so.

Cal has already beaten Minnesota and Oregon State.  Tomorrow night, the Odyssey will be in attendance at beautiful Snapdragon Stadium as the Golden Bears visit San Diego State.   Cal is a 12 point favorite and will roll if SDSU remotely resembles the team that got embarrassed  at the Palouse (No Aztec fan would ever believe that their coach, Sean Lewis, ran a fast-paced offense at Kent State.  The SDSU offense has been both MIA  and boring for 1+ years).

If Cal does triumph, they would be off to an improbable 4-0 start that could get some to start having wild dreams.  Cal avoids Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech and Clemson in ACC play.  The imbalance in the strength of conference opponents can not be exaggerated when dealing with 16+ conference members.

The Odyssey loves dreaming big so our sentiment is “Go Cal!”

Being the unwanted orphans due to the dissolution of the Pac 12 conference has been painful.  No matter what Oregon State and Washington State have tried to do in a futile, flaying manner, their relegation has been inevitable in the Moneyball era of college football.

Their former head coaches escaped, like rats diving off a sinking ship.  The departure of Jonathan Smith from Oregon State was doubly painful.  Not only had Smith been an excellent coach for the Beavers, he was a great QB for the Beavers’ most celebrated team of the past half century – the squad that rolled over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl.

Jake Dickert bolted from the Palouse last December for that renowned ACC power, Wake Forest (drumroll for sarcasm).,  That Smith also left for a lower echelon Power 4 team in Michigan State speaks volumes.

Last Saturday was their mutual nadir to date after nightmarish visits to the Lone Star state.  Washington State turned the ball over 5 times in the first half against North Texas and was annihilated, 59-10.   Texas Tech’s bloated payroll rolled to a 28-0 halftime lead against the Beavers and coasted home.

While last Saturday was a mutual nightmare, it might get even worse this Saturday.  Both squads face their intrastate Big Brothers who bolted for Big 10 money.  Oregon is favored by 5 TDs.  Even though Washington is travelling to the Palouse, the Huskies are 20 point favorites.

Next year, the Oregon-Oregon State game will not even be played.  OUCH!

Sorry for being so cheesy but we could not help but reference Florida defensive lineman, Brendan Bett, for his major contribution in South Florida’s major upset of the Gators, 18-16.  Bett’s spitting tantrum gave USF 15 valuable yards in their drive for the game-winning field goal.

Stanford looked absolutely woeful in the early going against BYU on Saturday night.  Toward the end of the first quarter, the “live” bet was available at BYU -24.5.  Looked like a great bet.  In fact, Stanford’s offense was woeful the entire game, gaining a pitiful 161 yards of total offense.

HOWEVER, the Stanford D bowed up near their goal line. BYU had to settle for field goals of 21, 23, 30, and 36 yards.     Final score:  BYU 27, Stanford 3.  That great looking “live” bet was a loser.  Gambling is not for the faint of heart!

Believe it or not, hidden behind 3 Top 10 matchups last week, was a rivalry game.  In the Palouse, Moscow, Idaho and Pullman Washington are 8 miles apart.  An old-time tradition was that the students of the visiting school would walk into their rival’s lair to watch the game.  The Odyssey found it heartwarming that the 93rd installment between the geographic neighbors would be played.

Sadly, the two schools do not play annually.  Idaho made a wise move to move out of the FBS ranks into the geographically friendly (and highly competitive ) Big Sky.  The Vandals’ former FBS home in the Sun Belt was very unfriendly from a geographic standpoint.  In recent years, Idaho’s fortunes have skied as they have become one of the many Big Sky powers.  Last year, Idaho traveled to Oregon and gave the Ducks all they could handle.

New coaching staffs (Wazzu became South Dakota State West) made the opener more intriguing for both squads.

The Odyssey always roots for the FCS in FCS-FBS matchups.  We love underdogs!  Idaho had a golden chance to pull off the upset but whiffed on its oppotunity.  With under 5 minutes left in the game, Washington State was nursing a 10-7 lead when disaster struck for the Cougars:  a strip-sack fumble deep in their own territory.  The Idaho defensive lineman who caused said disaster could not stay on his feet once the errant pigskin was covered.  Otherwise, a walk-in touchdown for the Vandals.

As it was, Idaho still had a golden opportunity on the Wazzu 11.  After two futile runs into the middle of the line and a pass sailing out of the endzone, Idaho settled for a game tying field goal.  After this totally uninspiring play call sequence, the Odyssey wondered to itself, why do said underdogs play it so close to the vest?

Predictably, WSU proceeded to march down the field and kick a game-winning field goal.  13-10 for the FBS.  I viewed this as karma for Idaho’s weak play calling at crunch time.  Sigh.  Oh well, at least Tarleton State provided some FCS magic last weekend.

Two days ago, the Odyssey ran a post titled “The Biggest Loser.”  The momentum in Cal football, triggered in no small part by the Calgorithm and a 2024 visit by ESPN Game Day, had come to a screeching halt.  The Golden Bears lost all their major offensive starts to the transfer portal.  OUCH!

HOWEVER.  On Saturday night in Corvallis, a savior may have been found.   A true freshman QB from Hawaii,   Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele,  completed 20 of 3o passes for 234 yards and 3 TDs.  Unlike Arch Manning, this savior delivered on opening day!  We hope the media will just dub him JKS as spelling his name will generate as big a headache as what JKS will provide to future defensive coordinators.  In a game which Las Vegas deemed a tossup, the Golden Bears rolled, 34-15.

The fans in Strawberry Canyon look to have a treat in 2025.  Maybe Berkeley will be Bear Territory after all in 2025.

No, this is not a review of a hit, reality TV show.  The Odyssey is referring to the transfer portal.  For every winner, the rule of symmetry says there should a loser.  Clearly, the Group of 5 conferences now serve as a de facto farm system for the Power 4.  However, a Power 4 team appears to have also lost out prior to tomorrow’s Week 1 Saturday:  Cal.

We say this with great sadness.  The Odyssey was thrilled to be at Cal’s sellout against Miami last October on a perfect Saturday night.  For 2.5 quarters, Berkeley was definitely Bear territory as the Golden Bears built  a 20+ point lead against the undefeated Hurricanes.  But in a pratfall so typical of Cal, Cam Ward led a stunning Miami comeback.

The loss was especially frustrating as Game Day made its maiden visit to Strawberry Canyon, no doubt influenced by the Calgorithm.  The Calgorithm was endlessly witty and creative.  For example, they paodied Chappell Roan’s “Hot to Go” in a hilarious “Ott to Go” – a reference to star running back Jadyn Ott.  WIth such a unique form of adulation, one might think that Ott would have stuck around for his Senior year.  Nope, Ott sprinted to Norman, Oklahoma.

Star QB Fernando Mendoza also departed for the suddenly fashinonable QB gig at Indiana.  Other departees from the Bay Area include standouts such as Nyziah Hunter to Nebraska and Tight End Jack Endries to Texas.  In short, the transfer portal has gutted Cal’s offense.  We will see how the replacements fare in a pivotal opener at Oregon State.

The Odyssey has long been frustrated with the San Francisco – the anti-mecca of college football.  But for a fleeting moment last fall, the potential at Cal was visible for all to see.   To see the Golden Bear program seemingly flip into reverse is painful.

Adding a 9th conference game in 2026 makes SO much sense in a 16-team league.

Some of the advantages:

Offers a much needed added data point to determine the teams to play in the SEC championship game.  With the current 8-game schedule, the strength of conference opponents varies tremendously.  Florida and Oklahoma have brutal schedules while the opponents of Texas and Missouri are much more manageable.

Each team will have 3 permanent conference opponents.  Given the tradition-laden nature of the SEC, preservation of tradtional opponents is important.

In a 4-year period, each conference team will play every other conference team twice.  This regularity of seeing all conference opponents makes it feel more like a —REAL conference.

Last, a cupcake game is eliminated.  With the high cost of tickets and supporting one’s team, that is a better deal for the fans.

ESPN will have more great games to broadcast and is paying roungly an added $5 million per team for this privilege.

AWESOME!!

If we were running the show, we would designate the 3 permanent opponents for each school as follows:

ALABAMA:        Auburn, Tennessee, LSU

ARKANSAS:      Texas, LSU, Mississippi State

AUBURN:          Alabama, Georgia, Florida

FLORIDA:         Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn

GEORGIA:        Auburn, Florida, South Carolina

KENTUCKY:     Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Mississippi State

LSU:                    Alabama, Arkansas,, Ole Miss

OLE MISS:        Mississippi State, LSU, Vanderbilt

MISSISSIPPI STATE:     Ole Miss, Kentucky, Missouri

MISSOURI:       Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi State

OKLAHOMA:   Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M

SOUTH CAROLINA:  Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M

TENNESSEE:  Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

TEXAS:               Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkanas

TEXAS A&M:    Texas, Oklahoma, South Carolina

VANDERBILT:  Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss

It is impossible to create equity among the 3 permanent opponents.  For example, Auburn would have the toughest trio of permanent opponents.  However, restoring the long-lost Florida rivalry would bring a smile to Southern seniors.  When the SEC makes the announcement as to the 3 permanent opponents, let’s see how close they come to the Odyssey’s preferences.

The Odyssey has looked into its crystal ball in regard to the fate of certain teams relative to the opinions of Las Vegas experts:

Air Force   Over 5.5 (-200)

Georgia Tech Over 7.5

Oklahoma Over 6.5 (-200)

Wisconsin Under 5.5

California Under 5.5

New Mexico Under 3.5

Illinois over 8.5

Navy over 8.5

Nebraska over 7.5

The win total of both LSU and Ole Miss is at 8.5.  The loser of their pivotal September 27 game at Ole Miss will definitely go under.  Yes, that is a wimpy hedge.  If you don’t want the hedge, select both to go under (The Odyssey likes to hedge).

Did we mention that sometimes our crystal ball gets awfully cloudy?

A fan definitely needs a scorecard to discover the name associated with the number.  The transfer portal era has generated roster turnover unimaginable in past generations.

Consider these Power 4 schools:

Purdue has 83 new scholarship players.  Some of the best Boilermakers from 2024’s train wreck of a season have bailed.  Hello to Ohio State’s new tight end, Max Klare.

North Carolina’s Bill Belichick greeted 40+ from the transfer portal.  So, it makes sense that the Tar Heels had 40+ exit via the portal.

West Virginia retread, Rich Rodriguez, has 70 new Mountaineers.

OK, those programs all have new coaches,  However, massive turnover also exists in Stillwater, where Mike Gundy is in his 21st season of being the head man. 60+ new Cowboys.

When one looks at the returning starters for Group of 5 teams, such numbers are paltry relative to historical norms.  The Group of 5 has become a de facto farm club system for the Power 4.

What does the Odyssey think of this unprecedented movement?  Overall,  a slight minus.  Most of the portal guys are not going to be NFL stalwarts.  We wonder if the lack of identification with one school and the difficulties with transferring credits are often worth the transfer(s).  For every Jalen Hurts who finds a second life at Oklahoma, others find the grass to not be greener.  Also, we resent the fact that a player can develop at a lesser school only to be scooped up by a traditional power.

However, even with the bad taste in our mouth due to the transfer portal, the Odyssey is excited about the upcoming season.  The habits of a lifetime of addiction endure!

With the advent of the mega conferences,  do not expect that the best 2 teams will always meet in the converence championship game.  AU contraire!  In the larger conferences, you avoid almost as many teams as you play.  Consider Ohio State.  In 2024,  the Buckeyes were not deemed good enough to play in the Big 10 championship game.  Not so coincidentally, Ohio State was the only team among the Big 10’s Top 4 to play each of the other 3 (Oregon, Penn State and Indiana).  The “other 3” only had to play 1 of the league’s Top 4 teams.

In the Big 12, 4 teams wound up with a 7-2 mark.  Complicated tie breakers focusing on the winning percentage of conference opponents helped determine that Arizona State would play Iowa State for the Big 12 title, while Colorado and BYU cooled their heels (Ironically, the 2 “left outs” did play each other in The People’s Championship at the Alamo Bowl).

The Odyssey cannot express how important the vagaries of the conference schedule are when it comes to the 2 teams playing for the crown.  As we did last year, we did a deep dive on the Big 10’s upcoming conference schedule but with one key change from last year’s analysis.  Last year, we ranked Big 10 squads #1-#18 based on their record in the previous 5 years.  Given that historical records no longer have the same measure of “predictability” in the NIL/transfer portal era (we are looking at you, Indiana!), we decided to rank teams #1-#18 strictly on their Big 10 conference record in 2024.  One can poke a couple holes at this approach.  Using this metric, Indiana is #3 and Michigan #7.  Hmmmm.  The lower the score in your conference opponents, the tougher your schedule.

Our conclusion is that the 2025 Big 10 schedule is  incredibly skewed!

Michigan, by far, has the easiest schedule!  The Wolverines play 7 of the 8 lowest ranked teams and do not play Oregon or Penn State.  Their season-ending momentum in 2024 just keeps building!

Contrast Michigan’s schedule to that of Wisconsin.  Using our algorithm, Michigan’s opponents total 115.   Those of Wisconsin total 62.  That quickly warming hot seat for Luke Fickell rates to be fanned by a brutal 2025 conference schedule.  Eight of the Badgers’ 9 games are against teams in the top 11.

Five other teams face tougher than average schedules:

2.Rutgers (72)

3. Iowa (73)

4. Northwestern (76)

5. Michigan State (78)

5. Oregon (78)

Among the easiest schedules:

17.  Illinois (101)

16. Minnesota (95)

14. Nebraska (94)

14. USC (94)

The Odyssey is unclear as to how the Big 10 determines schedules.  Regardless,  these schedules really tilt the odds as to who gets to Indy.