Author: rickro51 Page 29 of 36

The beauty of week 1 in college football is its unpredictability.  Lots of new faces take their first star turn.  Even established programs can surprise:  Absolutely nobody predicted the dominance from either LSU or Washington State this weekend.

However, the most electric surprise in the country are the Hawaii RAINBOW Warriors (The Odyssey hated the deletion of Rainbow from their nickname for its decade+ of deletion).  In part due to transfer defections, Hawaii was supposed to stink this year.  How stinky??  So stinky that Phil Steele pegged Hawaii for dead last in its division.  That sounds bad enough but when you recall that San Jose State is in the division, Steele basically foresaw the Rainbow Warriors as one of the very, very worst teams in college football. He had lots of company as the season win total in Las Vegas hovered between 3 and 3.5 (mind you, this was based on a 13-game schedule for Hawaii).

Oddly, the defection of two-year starting quarterback Dru Brown to Oklahoma State is riddled with irony.  First, Brown was not tabbed the Stillwater starter. Second, this allowed Cole McDonald to become Hawaii’s starter.  This may have been the best luck for a team since Wally Pipp’s injury allowed Lou Gehrig to start for the Yankees.

Hawaii, due to a week 0 tilt with Colorado State, has amassed a whopping 1,139 yards of offense.  The most amazing betting line this year occurred in the Navy game Saturday in Honolulu.  Despite Hawaii’s upset win at Colorado State as a 17 point dog, Navy started as a 12 point favorite.  As game time approached, the line rose to 14.  When you factor in the 6 time zones of travel for the Middies, and that Navy does not play great defense even in its best years, bettors had little belief in the Rainbow Warriors.

I wonder what bettors thought when Navy’s halftime deficit was a whopping 24 points at 38-14.  The charismatic McDonald threw for 6 TDs to a stellar receiving corps of John Ursua, Cedric Byrd and Jojo Ward.  If Hollywood ever wants to cast a great looking guy with surfer-dude looks and some mini-dreadlocks, McDonald is that guy.

We realize that their offensive fireworks have occurred against two teams who play little defense.  Hawaii has a tissue soft schedule the next month.  We expect Wyoming to come to Honolulu on October 6 against a psyched up 6-0 Rainbow Warrior squad.  We believe Hawaii has a reasonable shot to travel to Provo the following week as an undefeated team against a rejuvenated BYU.

Their story is already a great one and has the potential to become even better.  Mahalo!

Should San Jose State even continue having a D-1 program?   After another dismal 2017 season, the Spartans’ schedule looked as if there were two games in which they would be favored.  Thursday night, SJSU played one of them, D-1A UC Davis.  They managed to “hold” Aggie QB, Jake Maier, to 354 passing yards — IN THE FIRST HALF!  A 44-38 loss dragged the Spartan program even lower — if that was possible.

A month ago, we would have guessed that Hawaii would be a winnable game for SJSU.  However, last Saturday the Rainbow Warriors looked great for the first 35 minutes in an upset win at Colorado State.  Army looks to be a bit down this year so perhaps the Spartans could pull the upset at Levi Stadium.  If not, 0-12 looms.

The San Jose State teams of my youth were often quality teams that would periodically upset neighboring Stanford.  In Jack Elway and Claude Gilbert, SJSU had two terrific coaches.  Recent years have been a nightmare save for Mike McIntyre’s one excellent season before bolting to Boulder.  They play in an aging stadium that has seen better days.  A shame, because the views are magnificent.  Just as the Odyssey opined that Idaho should drop down to FCS (which they finally did this year in rejoining the excellent Big Sky conference), SJSU should consider the same option.  Being a punching bag and laughing stock is no fun — especially when the fan base is small and relatively disinterested.

On Friday night, 25 minutes to the north, Stanford opened against a dangerous SDSU team.  The Cardinal went into the game with one Heisman Trophy candidate and finished the game with two.  All American Bryce Love was absolutely stoned by the Aztec defense– held to 29 yards rushing or, put another way, 1.6 miniscule yards per carry.  SDSU dominated much of the first half until a 40-yard TD strike from KJ Costello to JJ Arcega-Whiteside just before half gave Stanford a 9-7 lead at the break.  Because the Aztec defense sold out to stop Love, their DBs were often in one-on-one coverage.  The result:  Once David Shaw starting dialing up numerous pass plays, the Cardinal rolled by a 31-10 tally.  One piece of advice to USC when the Trojans come to Palo Alto next week:  Give your corner some safety help on Arcega Whiteside!  A&W wound up with 6 receptions (3 TDs) for 228 yards.  His 3 TD catches were no fluke as he did the same in last year’s Alamo Bowl against TCU.

KJ Costello was utterly magnificent.  21/31/322 is a nice stat line.  In one of the game’s key plays, he did throw one pick to SDSU’s excellent Noble Hall.  Alas, Hall, no running back, fumbled on the return so no harm done to Stanford.

Stanford’s front 7 held up better than the Odyssey expected.  Even when SDSU QB, Christian Chapman, had time, Stanford’s DBs provided very good coverage.  I thought Stanford was a bit overrated going into the season.  But that is the beauty of Week 1 in college football:  So many surprises that cause us to change our minds.  I now believe Stanford has a good chance to beat USC in next week’s marquee matchup.

The Odyssey will be in the press box in Palo Alto Friday night.

We anticipate a closer game than Las Vegas predicts.  San Diego State is a 2-touchdown underdog.  For a team which beat Stanford last year, is returning both their quarterback and offensive line and likes to control the clock, we think the Aztecs are not getting enough respect.  Sure, Rashaad Penny has graduated but his backup, Juwan Washington averaged 6 yards per carry as well as taking multiple kick returns to the house.

Yes, Bryce Love returns and he is awesome.  He caused 76 missed tackles last year and if he gets in space, he is gone.  He was spectacular in last year’s game in San Diego and his heroics were still not enough.  Stanford will have a clear upgrade in one regard.  QB K.J. Costello has much more upside than last year’s starter in the Aztec upset, Keller Chryst.  Chryst played poorly last year (Perhaps overly conservative play calling contributed to his disappointing output).  When we left the stadium, we half expected to overhear a disgruntled Stanford fan to mutter, “Christ, he’s a killer.”

Those many pundits who highly tout Stanford this year must be Beatles’ disciples who believe “All You Need Is Love.”  However, Bryce Love does not play defense and we believe the Cardinal front 7 is not as stout as virtually any in the David Shaw era.

As a result, we expect more than the total of 48.5 points to be scored in spite of the conservative SDSU offense.  The Aztecs will not be able to stop Love and his talented offensive line.  Regardless, we believe Stanford will have difficulty containing the Aztecs.  Whoever has the ball last may well win this game.

One of the magical elements of college football openers is how unpredictable they can be.  With the annual personnel turnover, the unpredictability becomes semi-predictable.

An earlier article, “Storm Clouds”, opined that 5 teams were in for disappointing campaigns.  Hawaii’s Rainbow Warriors were on the list.  An awful 3-9 campaign was a prelude to a slew of exiting transfers.  Rats abandoning a sinking ship, I thought.   OOPS!

One of the transfers was starting QB Dru Brown.  Brown skedaddled to Stillwater where he hoped to be the starting QB for the Cowboys.  No dice there.  An inexperienced Cole McDonald took the reins Saturday evening and played like the second coming of Colt Brennan.  Certainly better than Brown ever played for Hawaii.  Sure, Colorado State is a terrible defensive team but it is not easy to amass 617 yards of  offense against air.

One of many reasons I was down on Hawaii was the transition to a new offense, the “run and shoot.”  McDonald ran it brilliantly, aided by some terrific play calling.  Everytime a quarterback draw was called, the CSU defenders could not wait to swarm into the backfield as McDonald took off.

Maybe the Odyssey underestimated the karma associated with Hawaii’s new helmets:  Outlining the geography of each of their islands is VERY cool.

With as good as both Hawaii and Wyoming looked on Week 0, the Mountain West appears to have more depth than most thought.  Who knew??

With a 4-team playoff, consensus is that nobody from outside the power 5 will get selected.  99% of the time, I would agree with this assessment.

If one can fantasize, Northern Illinois might prove the exception.  Such a huge if….but look at the Huskies’ non-conference schedule:  The opener is at nearby Iowa.  Utah pays a visit to DeKalb.  Roadies at Florida State and BYU are also on tap.

Utah, Iowa and Florida State are all well regarded.  Suppose, odds against odds, that Northern Illinois navigates these 4 games and the MAC without defeat.  Given how their Power 5 foes do the balance of the year would heavily factor in to this fantasy.

Both of Northern Illinois’ lines are of Power 5 quality.  NIU is well enough regarded that the line in their Iowa game next week has dropped from 14 to 9.  I am not predicting an undefeated season for NIU, but I think the Huskies have a reasonable shot to win two non-conference games.

The last time a non-Power 5 team had a chance to upset the Power 5 playoff near-monopoly, with an appropriate schedule, was in 2016.  Houston, in Ed Oliver’s freshman year, had an excellent team with Oklahoma and Lamar Jackson’s Louisville on the schedule.  Houston won both games but, ironically, stubbed its toe in the American Athletic Conference.

This time of year is a source of boundless optimism for teams.  Nobody has lost a game and injuries have not yet accumulated.

Regardless,  fans of the following programs would be advised to be prepared to temper pre-season hopes:

WASHINGTON STATE

What has happened on the Paloose is beyond tragic.  Overcoming a suicide is emotionally difficult on any level.When it happens to your starting QB, the ramifications are even deeper.  One of last year’s major surprises was the improvement of the Cougar D.  Yet more abandonment as their defensive coordinator, Alex Grinch, left for Ohio State.

Mike Leach would also have been happy to bolt to Tennessee in the Vols’ crazy job search.  When you add in the negative momentum created by 2 season-ending blowout losses, WSU will not come close to replicating their 9-4 record.  They will not have a winning season in 2018.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

Senior QB Ryan Finley will be one of the first QB’s selected in the 2019 draft.  A talented QB usually triggers boundless optimism.  However, NC State’s incredibly talented defensive line has entirely disappeared (all four starters were drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft).

The non-conference schedule is difficult.    To the casual fan, the James Madison opener is a yawner.  But JMU is an FCS power, coming off a 14-1 season.   Marshall will be solid and that trap game is on the road.  West Virginia is a borderline Top 10 team.  We predict that NC State will not be above .500 going into ACC play.

NC State will come nowhere near last year’s 9-4 mark.  Put them down for 7-5 or 6-6 in the regular season.

LSU

The Ed Orgeron experiment continues.  While nobody ever questions the Bayou Bengals on defense, the offense remains a question mark.  How an offense could have ever been a question mark when you had running backs like Derrius Guice and Leonard Fournette remains an excellent question. Perhaps Ohio State transfer, Joe Burrow, will help.  There has been so many changes in the offensive coordinator roles, the offense has suffered from a lack of continuity.

In addition to the SEC West gauntlet, LSU opens with Miami.  Their crossover games with the SEC East:  Only Georgia and Florida.  OUCH!!  Even if this Tiger team surprises and is excellent, the schedule could still translate to 7-5.

NEBRASKA

God is alive and well in Lincoln, Nebraska.  The miracle worker’s name:  Scott Frost.  He has come home from a smash two-year run in Orlando.

However, miracles sometimes are not instant.  Frost has his highly touted freshman recruit QB, Adrian Martinez, ready to start.  Alas, Martinez does not play defense.  Nebraska’s last three opponents in 2017 scored at least 54 points!!

Look where the Freshman will travel for the Huskers’ 5 Big 10 road games:

Michigan

Wisconsin

Northwestern

Ohio State

Iowa.

!!!!!  Toss in a home date against an excellent Michigan State team.  Husker fans should gear their hopes toward 2019.

HAWAII

When Nick Rolovich was hired before the 2016 season, I thought the Rainbow Warriors had made a perfect selection.  Rolovich was  a former star QB and assistant coach for Hawaii.  Now I wonder.

Back sliding from a 7-7 mark to a 3-9 record is one thing.  But when 2 of your most productive offensive players transfer,  one notices.  Starting QB Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State.  Wide receiver, Dylan Collie, transferred to BYU.  Couple these defections with the graduation of 2nd team MWC running back, Diocemy Saint Juste (1,510 yards last year) and the offensive exodus is disturbing.

The Odyssey is delighted to return from 7 months of hibernation.  We only feel half-alive until August comes around.

Aside from bad behavior from Big 10 coaches (Remember that “Meyer” rhymes with “liar”), perhaps the biggest storyline has to do with Alabama’s QB situation.  Tua or Jalen?  Jalen or Tua?  As some subtle signs point toward Tua, Jalen  may take his 26-2 record as a starter to another program in 2019.

The graduate transfer rule has enabled many QBs to avoid pine time by going to another school without having to sit out a year.  This big trend will only get more momentum with new rules in regard to saving a year of eligibility:  If one plays in no more than 4 games, a “redshirt” can still be granted.  Thus, some graduate transfers will become more attractive if they have 2 years of eligibility remaining, as would be the case for Jalen Hurts if he does not play in more than 4 games for the Crimson Tide this fall.

The following QB’s all have new addresses this fall, showing both their old and new schools:

                                                   OLD                    NEW

Joe Burrow                             Ohio State              LSU

K.J. Carta-Samuels              Washington           Colorado State

Jalan McClendon                  NC State                 Baylor

Evan Shirreffs                       Miami (Fla)            Charlotte

Wilton Speight                      Michigan                UCLA

Brandon Dawkins                 Arizona                   Indiana

Dru Brown                             Hawaii                    Oklahoma State

James Morgan                     Bowling Green       FIU

Keller Chryst                        Stanford                  Tennessee

Gardner Minshew               East Carolina          Washington State

We offer one cheeky anecdote in regard to Keller Chryst.  We were at last year’s San Diego State upset of Stanford, due, in large measure to a substandard performance by the Stanford QB.  Overheard, as we left the festive celebration, by a Stanford fan:  “Christ, he’s a killer.”

The Odyssey was surprised that Michigan football is as highly regarded in 2018 as the Las Vegas Oddsmakers and the Way-too-early Top 25’s indicate.

First, the Big 10 East is loaded.  UM must travel to face its two arch rivals.  The narrative seems to be this:  Michigan was held back by poor quarterback play in 2017.  Ole Miss transfer, Shea Patterson, is the antidote assuming the NCAA waives the usual one-year sitout rule for those who are not graduate transfers.  That eventuality is no sure thing.

Neither is the antidote assumption.  Michigan’s offensive line was below average in 2017 and loses 4-year starter, Mason Cole.  When is the last time Michigan had a running back capable of making big plays?  This is a trick question since the answer is Denard Robinson who often was the QB.

The quality of UM’s receiving corps is difficult to assess.  Tarik Black was the Wolverines’ leading receiver when he cracked a bone in his foot in the Air Force game. Out for the year.    Senior-to-be Grant Perry is a possession receiver and Donovan Peoples-Jones did not have a Freshman year befitting a 5-star recruit.

Further, some of the luster has come off Jim Harbaugh’s esteemed coaching pedigree.  UM  has suffered 6 late season losses in the past 2 years.  Coach Khaki’s team had 2nd half leads in all 6 games.  A great coach who cannot close?   Hmmmm……

We could not believe our eyes when the Westgate rolled out its 2018 national championship odds and UM had the 5th lowest odds.  In our opinion, this could have been the byproduct of increased  legalization of marijuana.

The Odyssey has long advocated that the crazy proliferation in the number of bowl games is too much of a good thing.

HOWEVER, one of the most minor of bowl games, Tucson’s Arizona Bowl, was beyond special.  39,000+ fans, an Arizona Bowl record, giddily provided a partisan advantage to New Mexico State.  For the Las Cruces Aggies, the bowl was the first since the Warren Woodson days in 1960.  Thus, their supporters were celebrating like it was 1999!  Yes, we miss Prince.

New Mexico State did not disappoint.  They rallied to force overtime after scoring to tie the game at 20.  That their stellar running back, Larry Rose, fittingly scored the game winning touchdown in OT was incredibly fitting.    Even though NM State has been a perennial loser, Rose never has been.  His 1,000+ rushing yards as a Freshman in 2014 was a loud statement as was his subsequent status as the Aggies’ all-time leading rusher.

How many bowls did you see the crowd storm the field at game’s end?  It happened in Tucson.

For New Mexico State, their incredible end to a special season was especially poignant.  Because we do not see great times ahead for the Aggies.  After being kicked out of the Sun Belt, they will try to make a go of it as an independent.  We are not optimistic.  Neither BYU or UMass has prospered as an independent.  Scheduling in the 2nd half of the season becomes a huge challenge.  In the short-term, the Aggies lose two of their best players in decades.  Not only did Rose’s last TD mark his last carry as an Aggie, superb QB Tyler Rogers is also graduating.  Hard to see how this ends well at the 1-A level.  Barring a life raft from the Mountain West, we believe the Aggies’ best long-term solution is to join fellow Sun Belt refugee, Idaho, in the Big Sky.

We hope all our readers have a prosperous 2018!  We look forward to checking in with you in August.

The Odyssey took on Phil Steele in an August article as we disagreed with some of his preseason predictions.  On six points of contention, we were right on 4, wrong on 2.

The outstanding item was a disagreement as to where Wyoming’s Josh Allen would be taken in the draft.  Steele predicted mid-teens while the Odyssey felt Allen would go much higher.  If you watched the first half of Wyoming’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl triumph over Western Michigan, it would have been easy to understand why the ESPN commentator thought Allen would go first in the draft.  The first half was definitely Allen’s best of the year and could be used as a highlight reel for his accurate, cannon arm.

Wyoming’s impressive victory cemented the notion that Allen will be gone within the first 7 picks and perhaps much higher.

Eat our dust, Phil!