Author: rickro51 Page 22 of 29

One of the magical elements of college football openers is how unpredictable they can be.  With the annual personnel turnover, the unpredictability becomes semi-predictable.

An earlier article, “Storm Clouds”, opined that 5 teams were in for disappointing campaigns.  Hawaii’s Rainbow Warriors were on the list.  An awful 3-9 campaign was a prelude to a slew of exiting transfers.  Rats abandoning a sinking ship, I thought.   OOPS!

One of the transfers was starting QB Dru Brown.  Brown skedaddled to Stillwater where he hoped to be the starting QB for the Cowboys.  No dice there.  An inexperienced Cole McDonald took the reins Saturday evening and played like the second coming of Colt Brennan.  Certainly better than Brown ever played for Hawaii.  Sure, Colorado State is a terrible defensive team but it is not easy to amass 617 yards of  offense against air.

One of many reasons I was down on Hawaii was the transition to a new offense, the “run and shoot.”  McDonald ran it brilliantly, aided by some terrific play calling.  Everytime a quarterback draw was called, the CSU defenders could not wait to swarm into the backfield as McDonald took off.

Maybe the Odyssey underestimated the karma associated with Hawaii’s new helmets:  Outlining the geography of each of their islands is VERY cool.

With as good as both Hawaii and Wyoming looked on Week 0, the Mountain West appears to have more depth than most thought.  Who knew??

With a 4-team playoff, consensus is that nobody from outside the power 5 will get selected.  99% of the time, I would agree with this assessment.

If one can fantasize, Northern Illinois might prove the exception.  Such a huge if….but look at the Huskies’ non-conference schedule:  The opener is at nearby Iowa.  Utah pays a visit to DeKalb.  Roadies at Florida State and BYU are also on tap.

Utah, Iowa and Florida State are all well regarded.  Suppose, odds against odds, that Northern Illinois navigates these 4 games and the MAC without defeat.  Given how their Power 5 foes do the balance of the year would heavily factor in to this fantasy.

Both of Northern Illinois’ lines are of Power 5 quality.  NIU is well enough regarded that the line in their Iowa game next week has dropped from 14 to 9.  I am not predicting an undefeated season for NIU, but I think the Huskies have a reasonable shot to win two non-conference games.

The last time a non-Power 5 team had a chance to upset the Power 5 playoff near-monopoly, with an appropriate schedule, was in 2016.  Houston, in Ed Oliver’s freshman year, had an excellent team with Oklahoma and Lamar Jackson’s Louisville on the schedule.  Houston won both games but, ironically, stubbed its toe in the American Athletic Conference.

This time of year is a source of boundless optimism for teams.  Nobody has lost a game and injuries have not yet accumulated.

Regardless,  fans of the following programs would be advised to be prepared to temper pre-season hopes:

WASHINGTON STATE

What has happened on the Paloose is beyond tragic.  Overcoming a suicide is emotionally difficult on any level.When it happens to your starting QB, the ramifications are even deeper.  One of last year’s major surprises was the improvement of the Cougar D.  Yet more abandonment as their defensive coordinator, Alex Grinch, left for Ohio State.

Mike Leach would also have been happy to bolt to Tennessee in the Vols’ crazy job search.  When you add in the negative momentum created by 2 season-ending blowout losses, WSU will not come close to replicating their 9-4 record.  They will not have a winning season in 2018.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE

Senior QB Ryan Finley will be one of the first QB’s selected in the 2019 draft.  A talented QB usually triggers boundless optimism.  However, NC State’s incredibly talented defensive line has entirely disappeared (all four starters were drafted in the first four rounds of the NFL draft).

The non-conference schedule is difficult.    To the casual fan, the James Madison opener is a yawner.  But JMU is an FCS power, coming off a 14-1 season.   Marshall will be solid and that trap game is on the road.  West Virginia is a borderline Top 10 team.  We predict that NC State will not be above .500 going into ACC play.

NC State will come nowhere near last year’s 9-4 mark.  Put them down for 7-5 or 6-6 in the regular season.

LSU

The Ed Orgeron experiment continues.  While nobody ever questions the Bayou Bengals on defense, the offense remains a question mark.  How an offense could have ever been a question mark when you had running backs like Derrius Guice and Leonard Fournette remains an excellent question. Perhaps Ohio State transfer, Joe Burrow, will help.  There has been so many changes in the offensive coordinator roles, the offense has suffered from a lack of continuity.

In addition to the SEC West gauntlet, LSU opens with Miami.  Their crossover games with the SEC East:  Only Georgia and Florida.  OUCH!!  Even if this Tiger team surprises and is excellent, the schedule could still translate to 7-5.

NEBRASKA

God is alive and well in Lincoln, Nebraska.  The miracle worker’s name:  Scott Frost.  He has come home from a smash two-year run in Orlando.

However, miracles sometimes are not instant.  Frost has his highly touted freshman recruit QB, Adrian Martinez, ready to start.  Alas, Martinez does not play defense.  Nebraska’s last three opponents in 2017 scored at least 54 points!!

Look where the Freshman will travel for the Huskers’ 5 Big 10 road games:

Michigan

Wisconsin

Northwestern

Ohio State

Iowa.

!!!!!  Toss in a home date against an excellent Michigan State team.  Husker fans should gear their hopes toward 2019.

HAWAII

When Nick Rolovich was hired before the 2016 season, I thought the Rainbow Warriors had made a perfect selection.  Rolovich was  a former star QB and assistant coach for Hawaii.  Now I wonder.

Back sliding from a 7-7 mark to a 3-9 record is one thing.  But when 2 of your most productive offensive players transfer,  one notices.  Starting QB Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State.  Wide receiver, Dylan Collie, transferred to BYU.  Couple these defections with the graduation of 2nd team MWC running back, Diocemy Saint Juste (1,510 yards last year) and the offensive exodus is disturbing.

The Odyssey is delighted to return from 7 months of hibernation.  We only feel half-alive until August comes around.

Aside from bad behavior from Big 10 coaches (Remember that “Meyer” rhymes with “liar”), perhaps the biggest storyline has to do with Alabama’s QB situation.  Tua or Jalen?  Jalen or Tua?  As some subtle signs point toward Tua, Jalen  may take his 26-2 record as a starter to another program in 2019.

The graduate transfer rule has enabled many QBs to avoid pine time by going to another school without having to sit out a year.  This big trend will only get more momentum with new rules in regard to saving a year of eligibility:  If one plays in no more than 4 games, a “redshirt” can still be granted.  Thus, some graduate transfers will become more attractive if they have 2 years of eligibility remaining, as would be the case for Jalen Hurts if he does not play in more than 4 games for the Crimson Tide this fall.

The following QB’s all have new addresses this fall, showing both their old and new schools:

                                                   OLD                    NEW

Joe Burrow                             Ohio State              LSU

K.J. Carta-Samuels              Washington           Colorado State

Jalan McClendon                  NC State                 Baylor

Evan Shirreffs                       Miami (Fla)            Charlotte

Wilton Speight                      Michigan                UCLA

Brandon Dawkins                 Arizona                   Indiana

Dru Brown                             Hawaii                    Oklahoma State

James Morgan                     Bowling Green       FIU

Keller Chryst                        Stanford                  Tennessee

Gardner Minshew               East Carolina          Washington State

We offer one cheeky anecdote in regard to Keller Chryst.  We were at last year’s San Diego State upset of Stanford, due, in large measure to a substandard performance by the Stanford QB.  Overheard, as we left the festive celebration, by a Stanford fan:  “Christ, he’s a killer.”

The Odyssey was surprised that Michigan football is as highly regarded in 2018 as the Las Vegas Oddsmakers and the Way-too-early Top 25’s indicate.

First, the Big 10 East is loaded.  UM must travel to face its two arch rivals.  The narrative seems to be this:  Michigan was held back by poor quarterback play in 2017.  Ole Miss transfer, Shea Patterson, is the antidote assuming the NCAA waives the usual one-year sitout rule for those who are not graduate transfers.  That eventuality is no sure thing.

Neither is the antidote assumption.  Michigan’s offensive line was below average in 2017 and loses 4-year starter, Mason Cole.  When is the last time Michigan had a running back capable of making big plays?  This is a trick question since the answer is Denard Robinson who often was the QB.

The quality of UM’s receiving corps is difficult to assess.  Tarik Black was the Wolverines’ leading receiver when he cracked a bone in his foot in the Air Force game. Out for the year.    Senior-to-be Grant Perry is a possession receiver and Donovan Peoples-Jones did not have a Freshman year befitting a 5-star recruit.

Further, some of the luster has come off Jim Harbaugh’s esteemed coaching pedigree.  UM  has suffered 6 late season losses in the past 2 years.  Coach Khaki’s team had 2nd half leads in all 6 games.  A great coach who cannot close?   Hmmmm……

We could not believe our eyes when the Westgate rolled out its 2018 national championship odds and UM had the 5th lowest odds.  In our opinion, this could have been the byproduct of increased  legalization of marijuana.

The Odyssey has long advocated that the crazy proliferation in the number of bowl games is too much of a good thing.

HOWEVER, one of the most minor of bowl games, Tucson’s Arizona Bowl, was beyond special.  39,000+ fans, an Arizona Bowl record, giddily provided a partisan advantage to New Mexico State.  For the Las Cruces Aggies, the bowl was the first since the Warren Woodson days in 1960.  Thus, their supporters were celebrating like it was 1999!  Yes, we miss Prince.

New Mexico State did not disappoint.  They rallied to force overtime after scoring to tie the game at 20.  That their stellar running back, Larry Rose, fittingly scored the game winning touchdown in OT was incredibly fitting.    Even though NM State has been a perennial loser, Rose never has been.  His 1,000+ rushing yards as a Freshman in 2014 was a loud statement as was his subsequent status as the Aggies’ all-time leading rusher.

How many bowls did you see the crowd storm the field at game’s end?  It happened in Tucson.

For New Mexico State, their incredible end to a special season was especially poignant.  Because we do not see great times ahead for the Aggies.  After being kicked out of the Sun Belt, they will try to make a go of it as an independent.  We are not optimistic.  Neither BYU or UMass has prospered as an independent.  Scheduling in the 2nd half of the season becomes a huge challenge.  In the short-term, the Aggies lose two of their best players in decades.  Not only did Rose’s last TD mark his last carry as an Aggie, superb QB Tyler Rogers is also graduating.  Hard to see how this ends well at the 1-A level.  Barring a life raft from the Mountain West, we believe the Aggies’ best long-term solution is to join fellow Sun Belt refugee, Idaho, in the Big Sky.

We hope all our readers have a prosperous 2018!  We look forward to checking in with you in August.

The Odyssey took on Phil Steele in an August article as we disagreed with some of his preseason predictions.  On six points of contention, we were right on 4, wrong on 2.

The outstanding item was a disagreement as to where Wyoming’s Josh Allen would be taken in the draft.  Steele predicted mid-teens while the Odyssey felt Allen would go much higher.  If you watched the first half of Wyoming’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl triumph over Western Michigan, it would have been easy to understand why the ESPN commentator thought Allen would go first in the draft.  The first half was definitely Allen’s best of the year and could be used as a highlight reel for his accurate, cannon arm.

Wyoming’s impressive victory cemented the notion that Allen will be gone within the first 7 picks and perhaps much higher.

Eat our dust, Phil!

There are few system “plays” that consistently work for bettors.  However, Saturday is an example of a system that usually rocks.

During bowl season, take the underdogs on the  money line.  Simple.  Saturday would have been a smashing success as Troy was the only favorite in the five games to win, beating an outclassed North Texas team.  Some teams just do not care about playing in a lesser bowl.

Oregon clearly did not want to be in Las Vegas.  Or, if it did, the Ducks wanted to be at the craps table and not Sam Boyd Stadium.  Their first half performance against an inspired Boise team was one of the most inept and effortless of the year.  Royce Freeman sat out the game to protect his draft status from injury.  But, truthfully, the entire Duck offense no showed in the first half as the defense tried to hold the fort after turnover after turnover after turnover after turnover.

The college bowl season often cheapens itself in the same way that the regular season is a joke in some professional sports.  The Odyssey has long advocated for a significant reduction in the number of bowl games so that the “no show” factor is reduced.

For New Mexico State and Idaho, their Sun Belt games were their last forever on Saturday.  The Odyssey is already getting nostalgic.

After both schools were kicked to the curb, Saturday was an incredible send off.  For New Mexico State, the last of Tyler Rogers’ 451 passing yards came with 40 seconds to go, as his TD pass vaulted NM State to a 22-17 comeback victory.  Las Cruces, hardly a football hotbed, showed up.  A sold out crowd stormed the field as the Aggies will likely be in their first bowl game in 57 years.  The Arizona Bowl is a probable destination for New Mexico State.

Idaho pulled off an improbable 24-10 upset in Atlanta over Georgia State.  The Vandals limped into the game, both with a 3-8 and their star quarterback, Matt Linehan, injured.  We would still like to know how Georgia State limited themselves to 10 points with 430 yards of offense.  Regardless, what a way for Idaho to say goodbye to Division 1-A football.

Best of luck to Idaho in the Big Sky football.  Now, if we can only get them an outdoor stadium.  The Odyssey would consider financing some of the explosives to blow up the Kibbie Dome.

Sweet, sweet goodbyes from the Orphans!!

Last Saturday afternoon, the nation fixated on the Iron Bowl.  Fittingly, the most under-the-radar game was Idaho’s visit to Las Cruces to play New Mexico State.

These two schools were kicked to the curb by the Sun Belt and unceremoniously  told to get out after 2017.  Two events made their dismissal attractive to the Sun Belt.  Coastal Carolina was added as a 12th member.  Before last year, 12 was the magic number to be able to sponsor a conference championship game.  However, the Big 12 lobbied to get the minimum number down to 10.  The upshot was that the Sun Belt could jettison these geographically undesirable schools and still have a conference championship game.  Voila!  Orphans.

Fittingly, the Orphan Bowl featured two back up quarterbacks and ,predictably, a low scoring, 17-10 outcome resulted.   A shame, since both New Mexico State’s Tyler Rogers and Idaho’s Matt Linehan were among their school’s best signal callers ever.

We predict disparate futures for the Orphans.  The Odyssey has long advocated for Idaho to return to the Big Sky for football.  The Big Sky is an excellent football conference and Idaho will actually play some natural, regional rivals.  How refreshing!

Regrettably, we see a bleak future for New Mexico State.  As Massachusetts and Brigham Young have found out, being independent results in November scheduling hell if your name is not Notre Dame. Unless New Mexico State somehow convinces either the Mountain West or Conference USA to take them in, we would not be surprised to see New Mexico State say goodbye to the highest division of college football in 4-5 years.  One can only schedule so many games against UMass and BYU.  If New Mexico State continues to play football in the 2020’s, they may also retreat to the Big Sky.

Oh, well, at least Las Cruces will still have one of the best climates in the USA.  That’s something.   As a consolation prize, we hope the Aggies win this week and become bowl eligible.