With a 4-team playoff, consensus is that nobody from outside the power 5 will get selected. 99% of the time, I would agree with this assessment.
If one can fantasize, Northern Illinois might prove the exception. Such a huge if….but look at the Huskies’ non-conference schedule: The opener is at nearby Iowa. Utah pays a visit to DeKalb. Roadies at Florida State and BYU are also on tap.
Utah, Iowa and Florida State are all well regarded. Suppose, odds against odds, that Northern Illinois navigates these 4 games and the MAC without defeat. Given how their Power 5 foes do the balance of the year would heavily factor in to this fantasy.
Both of Northern Illinois’ lines are of Power 5 quality. NIU is well enough regarded that the line in their Iowa game next week has dropped from 14 to 9. I am not predicting an undefeated season for NIU, but I think the Huskies have a reasonable shot to win two non-conference games.
The last time a non-Power 5 team had a chance to upset the Power 5 playoff near-monopoly, with an appropriate schedule, was in 2016. Houston, in Ed Oliver’s freshman year, had an excellent team with Oklahoma and Lamar Jackson’s Louisville on the schedule. Houston won both games but, ironically, stubbed its toe in the American Athletic Conference.