In this era of large conferences, there are too many teams to play each conference foe (with the notable exception of the Big 12 — a conference that, ironically, could not do a round robin if they really had 12 teams). Thus, conference and division races can hinge on an especially favorable or unfavorable schedule.
To start, scheduling condolences to South Carolina: The only school to have Clemson, Georgia and Alabama on their schedule. The playoff committee ought to be on speed dial with the Gamecocks come selection Sunday.
Speaking of the SEC East, nobody thinks Missouri is nearly as good as Georgia. Few think Mizzou is as good as Florida (despite convincing wins over the Gators in 2017 and 2018). Look at the trio’s two “crossover” opponents from the West. Georgia plays Auburn and Texas A&M from the West on consecutive weekends in November. Florida plays LSU and Auburn on consecutive weekends in October (How nice that Florida and Auburn play this year. Before the SEC expanded to 12 teams, they played annually in a fun series). Missouri plays the two rebuilding teams from the West predicted to finish at the bottom: Ole Miss and Arkansas. If Georgia and/or Florida stubs its toe, Missouri has a real shot to backdoor into the East championship. If you think Missouri has a relative breather in their SEC schedule, check out their non-conference schedule (rebuilding Wyoming, rebuilding West Virginia, SE Missouri and Troy). Mizzou’s schedule is so easy, compared to their SEC counterparts, that they may have less injury attrition to deal with when they play Georgia and Florida in November.
Consider the SEC West. Phil Steele has listed Auburn’s schedule as the ninth toughest. There is NO way that there are 8 tougher schedules than that of the War Eagles. NO! WAY! as John McEnroe used to sputter. In addition to the always tough SEC West and their battles with the two best teams in the SEC East, Auburn’s opener is with an Oregon team with a star quarterback and, arguably, the nation’s best offensive line.
Steele thinks Texas A&M’s is the nation’s toughest. schedule, in no small part to road games at Clemson and Georgia. However, their other SEC East crossover game is with a good-but-not-close-to- great South Carolina team.
Auburn and A&M would both be getting more support for serious contention for the SEC West title if not for these gauntlets. Meanwhile, Alabama is getting help (Alabama needs help?!?!?!). Their 2 crossover opponents are South Carolina and rebuilding Tennessee. What is clear in the SEC is that when you only play 2 of the 7 teams in the other division, scheduling becomes quite important in the division races.
In the Big 10, the inequity is not quite as bad since you have 3 “crossover” games but the imbalance is still pronounced and could easily determine the Big 10 West winner. Wisconsin is looking to rebound from a disappointing 8-5 year. However, the Badgers face what the Odyssey believes are the 3 strongest teams of the East: Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. OUCH! Their last two road games are at fellow contenders Nebraska and Minnesota. If the Badgers can survive and win the West, the division crown will be fully earned and then some.
Scheduling is why nobody should sleep on the Golden Gophers. Their crossover games are with Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State. Consider Minnesota to have a a 2-game lead over Wisconsin in August! Nebraska’s schedule is also favorable. While the Huskers do draw Ohio State, their other crossovers are against Maryland and Indiana. Further, their two November home games are against fellow contenders Wisconsin and Iowa.
In the MAC, Ohio is a clear favorite in the East. The top teams in the West are projected to be Toledo, Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. WMU and NIU crossover to play Ohio. Toledo does not. Advantage, Rockets!
In the Pac 12, fewer scheduling anomalies exist because there are 4 crossover games against 6 teams in the other division. But exist they do. While Utah would likely have been the favorite to win the PAC-12 South in any event, missing Oregon and Stanford from the North rates to help. Meanwhile one of Utah’s chief competitors from the South, USC, has a tougher Pac-12 slate, missing Oregon State and Washington State from the North.
In track, the starting lanes are staggered to insure equality. In college football, the starting lanes are also staggered but as for equality? One could view this quirk as one of the maddening and imperfect beauties of college football.