The ODYSSEY vs. PHIL STEELE: It’s On!

The Odyssey is a big fan of Phil Steele’s football annual.  The publication is  one of the best things to come out of Cleveland since the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame.

HOWEVER,

Each year, Phil takes great pride how he consistently outshines other predictors and offers waves of proof over the previous decade plus.  We will be kind and not label him as the Donald Trump of preseason prognosticators.  The Odyssey thinks sometimes Phil takes himself a bit too seriously.  As in way too seriously!  For example, his a list of “Most Improved Teams” is the self-described “coveted” Most Improved Team list.  If a team makes one of his “good” lists, they can be deemed “blessed.”

The humble Odyssey (in our view, it is difficult not to be when dealing with 18-to-22 year olds with the injury wild card adding even more unpredictability) differs with Mr. Steele in some of his 2017 predictions:

1.  Northern Illinois is on his coveted Most Improved Team list at #10.  Since the Huskies, finished 5-7, 5-3 in the MAC, we take this to be a projection of at least a 7-5 or, more likely, an 8-4 mark.  In spite of the MAC West being significantly weaker in 2016,  the Odyssey believes that NIU will have another so-so year — See our August 13 article as for all the gory details.
2. Steele does underrate 3 teams, one being Kansas State.  He rates KSU at #24 in his pre-season poll (#19 in his Power Poll. To which should we look, Mr. Steele??  Multiple polls do give one more wiggle room)  To Steele’s credit, a couple other rankings have K-State even lower.  Lindy’s ranks KSU as #6 in the Big 12.  No way!  Bill Snyder has an experienced team returning, including QB Jesse Ertz, which will rely less than usual on immediate impact from his usual wave of JC transfers.  With possible apologies to Texas and TCU in hand, the Wildcats look to be the only team that consistently plays D in the Big 12.  Snyder’s run-first, ball-hogging offense, another Big 12 anomaly, gives added aid in resting his D.  Five league home tilts further help, including visits from Oklahoma, TCU and West Virginia.  We were concerned about the 77-year-old legend’s cancer scare in the offseason, but, undaunted, we expect big results from the Little Apple.
3. Steele ranks Northwestern at #28 nationally.  With a terrific returning backfield, yet another group of  Wildcats will also outshine Steele’s prediction, despite the big loss of a former walk-on, star receiver Austin Carr.  Perhaps easily.  Wisconsin is the clear favorite in the Big 10 West but the Odyssey projects NW to mount a strong challenge.  Barring injuries at the depth-challenged private school, look for Pat Fitzgerald’s trip to Madison on September 30 to decide the Big 10 West.
4. Toledo is ranked at #68 in Steele’s Power Poll.  The Odyssey wonders if this is a misprint.  With a loaded offense, a weakened MAC West and only one daunting game (at the powerful Miami Hurricanes and their awesome D on September 23), the Rockets should win at least 10 games, with 12-1 and a MAC title a strong possibility.  As for critics who question the Rocket D, this is a fair point.  But when Logan Woodside and his bevy of wide receivers easily having the ability to score 50 points in 11 of their 12 regular season tests, winning 52-37 will still count as a win.
5. Steele projects Nevada as the #2 team in the horrible West division of the Mountain West.  We agree with his projection that only 1 team, San Diego State, ranks above #100.  However, Nevada’s coaching transition and new system issues will doom the Wolfpack this year (See details in our August 13 article).  Not only will Nevada not rise as high as #2 in this motley collection, the Odyssey predicts that at least one of Hawaii, Fresno State and UNLV will finish ahead of the Wolfpack.  Where have you gone, Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick?  This year’s edition may prove more downtrodden than downtown Reno.
6. Steele projects Wyoming’s QB, Josh Allen, as the #16 pick in the 2018 draft.  A quick mea culpa:  The Odyssey only follows college football and, thus, are about as far from being NFL draftniks as humanly possible.  However, given the NFL’s yen for taking numerous 1st round flyers on iffy QB prospects, we feel quite certain in saying that Allen will be gone by #16, probably long gone.  We wondered why Steele is so negative on Allen’s draft prospects compared to the shout-outs from many NFL draft gurus.  Steele did mention Allen’s 6 turnovers at Nebraska last year.  Or perhaps Phil is fixated on Allen’s game-ending, Poinsettia Bowl interception against BYU when Allen, trying to overcome a 24-21 deficit, threw into double coverage.  To give Steele the benefit of the doubt, maybe he thinks Allen is a turnover machine, a college version of Blake Bortles.  Regardless, here is the Odyssey’s take.  Phil Steele is utterly in love with his Very Highly Touted player rankings (VHT’s in Steele speak) and his PS rankings.  A skinny Josh Allen was nowhere to be found on those lists coming out of a lightly regarded high school in the San Joaquin Valley.  Zero Division 1 scholarship offers coming out of high school.  We think it destroys some of Phil’s brain cells that a Reedley Junior College QB could morph into a major star.  No VHT!  No PS!  Phil subliminally thinks, “This cannot be happening.”  JUST NOT POSSIBLE!  (Extra credit to all those who know that Reedley JC is located between Fresno and Visalia.  Double extra credit, for any non-Californian who knows where the hell Visalia is).  The Odyssey is not at all deterred that Allen plays at Wyoming.  Au contraire, given that Carson Wentz was the North Dakota State QB at the end of the Craig Bohl’s NDSU tenure.

If, for some reason, we need a Steele/Odyssey tiebreaker, here it is.   Steele projects Michigan State at #69.  MSU is one of the hardest teams to assess, given  its vaunted 2016 recruiting class is now in shreds due to an ungodly combination of player misconduct, legal issues and defections.  However, we cannot totally discount Mark Dantonio’s success with 2-star and 3-star recruits.  We project that MSU will beat both of two teams that Steele has more highly ranked, Indiana and Western Michigan.

SO, Phil, in the unlikely event, the Odyssey is more wrong than right, we will buy you dinner at the restaurant of your choice in San Diego.  But, frankly, we say with all due humility: We are not holding our breath.